UK Elections Contest data. Forecasts. Backtests.

General election forecast

Alloa and Grangemouth

Predicted winner: SNP with 28.1% of the vote, a 0.4pp margin over Labour.

scotland · scotland

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

SNP
28.1% +28.1pp
Labour
27.7% +27.7pp
Reform UK
20.6% +11.4pp
Green Party
9.1% +9.1pp
Conservative
6.4% +6.4pp
Lib Dem
3.7% +0.9pp
Independent
2.0% -0.1pp
Alba Party
1.5% -0.0pp
Workers Party
0.5% -0.0pp
Plaid Cymru
0.3% +0.3pp
Other
0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Brian Leishman

See also: TheyWorkForYou

2024 general election result

What happened on 4 July 2024

CandidatePartyVotesShare
Brian Leishman Labour Party 18,039 43.8%
John Nicolson Scottish National Party (SNP) 11,917 28.9%
Richard Fairley Reform UK 3,804 9.2%
Rachel Nunn Conservative and Unionist Party 3,127 7.6%
Nariese Whyte Scottish Green Party 1,421 3.4%
Adrian May Lib Dem 1,151 2.8%
Eva Margaret Comrie Independent 881 2.1%
Kenny MacAskill Alba Party 638 1.5%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Alloa and Grangemouth, and what actually happened.

✗ Winner missed , predicted SNP, actual Labour. Major-party MAE: 9.26pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Labour
15.8%
SNP
43.5%
Reform UK
18.0%
Conservative
6.6%
Scottish Green Party
0.3%
Lib Dem
4.9%
Independent
2.2%
Alba Party
0.1%
Workers Party
1.0%
Green Party
6.4%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Labour
43.8% -28.0pp
SNP
28.9% +14.6pp
Reform UK
9.2% +8.8pp
Conservative
7.6% -1.0pp
Scottish Green Party
3.5% -3.1pp
Lib Dem
2.8% +2.1pp
Independent
2.1% +0.0pp
Alba Party
1.6% -1.4pp
Workers Party
0.5% +0.4pp
Green Party
0.0% +6.4pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built
  1. GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Alloa and Grangemouth
  2. National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
  3. BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 scotland prior at weight 5%
  4. Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →