If a UK general election were held today
Reform UK projected to win 324 seats
All 650 UK parliamentary constituencies. Refreshed daily from the latest UK Westminster polling.
A majority needs 326 seats. Reform UK is 2 short of an overall majority.
Every seat coloured by predicted winner
The UK political map, if a general election were held today Forecast winner by constituency Aldershot. Reform UK predicted (7.8pp margin) Aldridge-Brownhills. Reform UK predicted (8.2pp margin) Altrincham and Sale West. Labour predicted (0.6pp margin) Amber Valley. Reform UK predicted (21.7pp margin) Arundel and South Downs. Conservative predicted (4.9pp margin) Ashfield. Reform UK predicted (39.1pp margin) Ashford. Reform UK predicted (13.6pp margin) Ashton-under-Lyne. Reform UK predicted (9.5pp margin) Aylesbury. Reform UK predicted (3.2pp margin) Banbury. Reform UK predicted (3.9pp margin) Barking. Labour predicted (6.9pp margin) Barnsley North. Reform UK predicted (14.4pp margin) Barnsley South. Reform UK predicted (18.3pp margin) Barrow and Furness. Reform UK predicted (7.0pp margin) Basildon and Billericay. Reform UK predicted (16.8pp margin) Basingstoke. Reform UK predicted (3.2pp margin) Bassetlaw. Reform UK predicted (12.7pp margin) Bath. Lib Dem predicted (25.7pp margin) Battersea. Labour predicted (10.6pp margin) Beaconsfield. Conservative predicted (3.0pp margin) Beckenham and Penge. Labour predicted (4.2pp margin) Bedford. Labour predicted (1.9pp margin) Bermondsey and Old Southwark. Labour predicted (4.0pp margin) Bethnal Green and Stepney. Labour predicted (5.3pp margin) Beverley and Holderness. Reform UK predicted (7.2pp margin) Bexhill and Battle. Reform UK predicted (4.6pp margin) Bexleyheath and Crayford. Reform UK predicted (13.4pp margin) Bicester and Woodstock. Lib Dem predicted (17.1pp margin) Birkenhead. Labour predicted (1.8pp margin) Birmingham Edgbaston. Labour predicted (3.2pp margin) Birmingham Erdington. Labour predicted (0.9pp margin) Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley. Labour predicted (8.5pp margin) Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North. Workers Party predicted (5.6pp margin) Birmingham Ladywood. Labour predicted (17.1pp margin) Birmingham Northfield. Reform UK predicted (10.9pp margin) Birmingham Perry Barr. Independent predicted (14.0pp margin) Birmingham Selly Oak. Reform UK predicted (0.7pp margin) Birmingham Yardley. Workers Party predicted (6.2pp margin) Bishop Auckland. Reform UK predicted (12.5pp margin) Blackburn. Independent predicted (6.7pp margin) Blackley and Middleton South. Labour predicted (8.7pp margin) Blackpool North and Fleetwood. Reform UK predicted (15.2pp margin) Blackpool South. Reform UK predicted (14.7pp margin) Blaydon and Consett. Reform UK predicted (6.7pp margin) Blyth and Ashington. Reform UK predicted (12.2pp margin) Bognor Regis and Littlehampton. Reform UK predicted (10.0pp margin) Bolsover. Reform UK predicted (13.5pp margin) Bolton North East. Reform UK predicted (5.5pp margin) Bolton South and Walkden. Reform UK predicted (0.5pp margin) Bolton West. Reform UK predicted (9.6pp margin) Bootle. Labour predicted (10.6pp margin) Boston and Skegness. Reform UK predicted (25.2pp margin) Bournemouth East. Reform UK predicted (3.3pp margin) Bournemouth West. Reform UK predicted (9.5pp margin) Bracknell. Reform UK predicted (6.4pp margin) Bradford East. Labour predicted (3.4pp margin) Bradford South. Reform UK predicted (6.4pp margin) Bradford West. Labour predicted (10.0pp margin) Braintree. Reform UK predicted (9.5pp margin) Brent East. Labour predicted (12.8pp margin) Brent West. Labour predicted (1.7pp margin) Brentford and Isleworth. Labour predicted (5.9pp margin) Brentwood and Ongar. Reform UK predicted (8.8pp margin) Bridgwater. Reform UK predicted (11.8pp margin) Bridlington and The Wolds. Reform UK predicted (13.0pp margin) Brigg and Immingham. Reform UK predicted (11.1pp margin) Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven. Labour predicted (1.1pp margin) Brighton Pavilion. Green Party predicted (38.9pp margin) Bristol Central. Green Party predicted (39.2pp margin) Bristol East. Green Party predicted (7.8pp margin) Bristol North East. Labour predicted (2.1pp margin) Bristol North West. Labour predicted (5.4pp margin) Bristol South. Green Party predicted (1.2pp margin) Broadland and Fakenham. Reform UK predicted (6.7pp margin) Bromley and Biggin Hill. Reform UK predicted (4.8pp margin) Bromsgrove. Reform UK predicted (7.2pp margin) Broxbourne. Reform UK predicted (6.2pp margin) Broxtowe. Reform UK predicted (7.5pp margin) Buckingham and Bletchley. Reform UK predicted (6.5pp margin) Burnley. Reform UK predicted (4.3pp margin) Burton and Uttoxeter. Reform UK predicted (12.1pp margin) Bury North. Reform UK predicted (5.8pp margin) Bury South. Reform UK predicted (2.5pp margin) Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket. Reform UK predicted (8.3pp margin) Calder Valley. Reform UK predicted (4.4pp margin) Camborne and Redruth. Reform UK predicted (8.2pp margin) Cambridge. Labour predicted (7.6pp margin) Cannock Chase. Reform UK predicted (20.6pp margin) Canterbury. Reform UK predicted (1.6pp margin) Carlisle. Reform UK predicted (11.1pp margin) Carshalton and Wallington. Lib Dem predicted (22.8pp margin) Castle Point. Reform UK predicted (16.2pp margin) Central Devon. Reform UK predicted (5.0pp margin) Central Suffolk and North Ipswich. Reform UK predicted (6.3pp margin) Chatham and Aylesford. Reform UK predicted (16.4pp margin) Cheadle. Lib Dem predicted (25.8pp margin) Chelmsford. Lib Dem predicted (16.2pp margin) Chelsea and Fulham. Conservative predicted (4.7pp margin) Cheltenham. Lib Dem predicted (22.7pp margin) Chesham and Amersham. Lib Dem predicted (18.5pp margin) Chester North and Neston. Labour predicted (2.2pp margin) Chester South and Eddisbury. Conservative predicted (1.4pp margin) Chesterfield. Reform UK predicted (6.5pp margin) Chichester. Lib Dem predicted (24.2pp margin) Chingford and Woodford Green. Conservative predicted (11.1pp margin) Chippenham. Lib Dem predicted (22.4pp margin) Chipping Barnet. Conservative predicted (1.9pp margin) Chorley. Speaker predicted (43.6pp margin) Christchurch. Reform UK predicted (3.1pp margin) Cities of London and Westminster. Labour predicted (0.9pp margin) City of Durham. Reform UK predicted (2.0pp margin) Clacton. Reform UK predicted (36.8pp margin) Clapham and Brixton Hill. Labour predicted (14.7pp margin) Colchester. Reform UK predicted (4.0pp margin) Colne Valley. Reform UK predicted (6.7pp margin) Congleton. Reform UK predicted (8.5pp margin) Corby and East Northamptonshire. Reform UK predicted (7.6pp margin) Coventry East. Labour predicted (0.1pp margin) Coventry North West. Reform UK predicted (4.3pp margin) Coventry South. Labour predicted (0.5pp margin) Cramlington and Killingworth. Reform UK predicted (7.2pp margin) Crawley. Reform UK predicted (8.8pp margin) Crewe and Nantwich. Reform UK predicted (8.6pp margin) Croydon East. Reform UK predicted (0.1pp margin) Croydon South. Conservative predicted (7.5pp margin) Croydon West. Labour predicted (13.6pp margin) Dagenham and Rainham. Labour predicted (2.1pp margin) Darlington. Reform UK predicted (6.5pp margin) Dartford. Reform UK predicted (11.8pp margin) Daventry. Reform UK predicted (7.5pp margin) Derby North. Reform UK predicted (5.9pp margin) Derby South. Reform UK predicted (4.5pp margin) Derbyshire Dales. Reform UK predicted (4.0pp margin) Dewsbury and Batley. Independent predicted (18.6pp margin) Didcot and Wantage. Lib Dem predicted (17.3pp margin) Doncaster Central. Reform UK predicted (7.9pp margin) Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme. Reform UK predicted (12.8pp margin) Doncaster North. Labour predicted (14.0pp margin) Dorking and Horley. Lib Dem predicted (17.1pp margin) Dover and Deal. Reform UK predicted (14.0pp margin) Droitwich and Evesham. Reform UK predicted (0.8pp margin) Dudley. Reform UK predicted (18.8pp margin) Dulwich and West Norwood. Labour predicted (11.6pp margin) Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard. Reform UK predicted (7.7pp margin) Ealing Central and Acton. Labour predicted (9.8pp margin) Ealing North. Labour predicted (7.8pp margin) Ealing Southall. Labour predicted (11.4pp margin) Earley and Woodley. Conservative predicted (4.5pp margin) Easington. Reform UK predicted (14.4pp margin) East Grinstead and Uckfield. Conservative predicted (5.0pp margin) East Ham. Labour predicted (17.7pp margin) East Hampshire. Lib Dem predicted (5.3pp margin) East Surrey. Reform UK predicted (2.0pp margin) East Thanet. Reform UK predicted (10.9pp margin) East Wiltshire. Reform UK predicted (1.1pp margin) East Worthing and Shoreham. Reform UK predicted (3.6pp margin) Eastbourne. Lib Dem predicted (29.7pp margin) Eastleigh. Lib Dem predicted (10.5pp margin) Edmonton and Winchmore Hill. Labour predicted (8.1pp margin) Ellesmere Port and Bromborough. Labour predicted (0.4pp margin) Eltham and Chislehurst. Reform UK predicted (3.1pp margin) Ely and East Cambridgeshire. Lib Dem predicted (8.6pp margin) Enfield North. Labour predicted (5.6pp margin) Epping Forest. Conservative predicted (14.6pp margin) Epsom and Ewell. Lib Dem predicted (13.7pp margin) Erewash. Reform UK predicted (11.2pp margin) Erith and Thamesmead. Labour predicted (5.2pp margin) Esher and Walton. Lib Dem predicted (27.7pp margin) Exeter. Labour predicted (0.4pp margin) Exmouth and Exeter East. Reform UK predicted (4.8pp margin) Fareham and Waterlooville. Reform UK predicted (2.4pp margin) Farnham and Bordon. Lib Dem predicted (4.6pp margin) Faversham and Mid Kent. Reform UK predicted (10.4pp margin) Feltham and Heston. Labour predicted (1.3pp margin) Filton and Bradley Stoke. Reform UK predicted (1.0pp margin) Finchley and Golders Green. Labour predicted (1.4pp margin) Folkestone and Hythe. Reform UK predicted (17.2pp margin) Forest of Dean. Reform UK predicted (7.0pp margin) Frome and East Somerset. Lib Dem predicted (12.8pp margin) Fylde. Reform UK predicted (6.7pp margin) Gainsborough. Reform UK predicted (7.5pp margin) Gateshead Central and Whickham. Reform UK predicted (5.4pp margin) Gedling. Reform UK predicted (4.5pp margin) Gillingham and Rainham. Reform UK predicted (13.0pp margin) Glastonbury and Somerton. Lib Dem predicted (16.9pp margin) Gloucester. Reform UK predicted (8.3pp margin) Godalming and Ash. Lib Dem predicted (7.0pp margin) Goole and Pocklington. Reform UK predicted (3.5pp margin) Gorton and Denton. Labour predicted (5.5pp margin) Gosport. Reform UK predicted (1.3pp margin) Grantham and Bourne. Reform UK predicted (6.1pp margin) Gravesham. Reform UK predicted (12.3pp margin) Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes. Reform UK predicted (17.4pp margin) Great Yarmouth. Reform UK predicted (31.6pp margin) Greenwich and Woolwich. Labour predicted (13.1pp margin) Guildford. Lib Dem predicted (23.5pp margin) Hackney North and Stoke Newington. Labour predicted (7.5pp margin) Hackney South and Shoreditch. Labour predicted (6.6pp margin) Halesowen. Reform UK predicted (12.9pp margin) Halifax. Reform UK predicted (5.3pp margin) Hamble Valley. Conservative predicted (0.7pp margin) Hammersmith and Chiswick. Labour predicted (12.0pp margin) Hampstead and Highgate. Labour predicted (10.3pp margin) Harborough, Oadby and Wigston. Conservative predicted (0.8pp margin) Harlow. Reform UK predicted (12.9pp margin) Harpenden and Berkhamsted. Lib Dem predicted (25.1pp margin) Harrogate and Knaresborough. Lib Dem predicted (21.4pp margin) Harrow East. Conservative predicted (23.0pp margin) Harrow West. Labour predicted (5.4pp margin) Hartlepool. Reform UK predicted (12.8pp margin) Harwich and North Essex. Reform UK predicted (8.7pp margin) Hastings and Rye. Reform UK predicted (3.4pp margin) Havant. Reform UK predicted (14.0pp margin) Hayes and Harlington. Labour predicted (6.8pp margin) Hazel Grove. Lib Dem predicted (11.1pp margin) Hemel Hempstead. Reform UK predicted (8.7pp margin) Hendon. Conservative predicted (4.6pp margin) Henley and Thame. Lib Dem predicted (18.4pp margin) Hereford and South Herefordshire. Reform UK predicted (7.3pp margin) Herne Bay and Sandwich. Reform UK predicted (9.0pp margin) Hertford and Stortford. Reform UK predicted (6.9pp margin) Hertsmere. Conservative predicted (7.1pp margin) Hexham. Conservative predicted (1.9pp margin) Heywood and Middleton North. Reform UK predicted (13.1pp margin) High Peak. Reform UK predicted (2.6pp margin) Hinckley and Bosworth. Reform UK predicted (3.7pp margin) Hitchin. Reform UK predicted (2.6pp margin) Holborn and St Pancras. Labour predicted (14.2pp margin) Honiton and Sidmouth. Lib Dem predicted (19.5pp margin) Hornchurch and Upminster. Reform UK predicted (15.9pp margin) Hornsey and Friern Barnet. Labour predicted (15.6pp margin) Horsham. Lib Dem predicted (12.1pp margin) Houghton and Sunderland South. Reform UK predicted (15.4pp margin) Hove and Portslade. Labour predicted (9.1pp margin) Huddersfield. Green Party predicted (3.1pp margin) Huntingdon. Reform UK predicted (3.0pp margin) Hyndburn. Reform UK predicted (7.0pp margin) Ilford North. Labour predicted (3.9pp margin) Ilford South. Labour predicted (10.5pp margin) Ipswich. Reform UK predicted (4.2pp margin) Isle of Wight East. Reform UK predicted (8.4pp margin) Isle of Wight West. Reform UK predicted (10.0pp margin) Islington North. Independent predicted (24.5pp margin) Islington South and Finsbury. Labour predicted (9.5pp margin) Jarrow and Gateshead East. Reform UK predicted (8.3pp margin) Keighley and Ilkley. Conservative predicted (3.5pp margin) Kenilworth and Southam. Conservative predicted (1.7pp margin) Kensington and Bayswater. Labour predicted (0.2pp margin) Kettering. Reform UK predicted (10.2pp margin) Kingston and Surbiton. Lib Dem predicted (36.0pp margin) Kingston upon Hull East. Reform UK predicted (16.4pp margin) Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham. Reform UK predicted (3.3pp margin) Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice. Reform UK predicted (9.8pp margin) Kingswinford and South Staffordshire. Reform UK predicted (7.6pp margin) Knowsley. Labour predicted (5.3pp margin) Lancaster and Wyre. Reform UK predicted (1.5pp margin) Leeds Central and Headingley. Labour predicted (2.2pp margin) Leeds East. Reform UK predicted (1.5pp margin) Leeds North East. Labour predicted (10.2pp margin) Leeds North West. Labour predicted (1.0pp margin) Leeds South. Labour predicted (8.5pp margin) Leeds South West and Morley. Reform UK predicted (8.4pp margin) Leeds West and Pudsey. Reform UK predicted (2.0pp margin) Leicester East. Conservative predicted (8.8pp margin) Leicester South. Independent predicted (14.1pp margin) Leicester West. Reform UK predicted (0.3pp margin) Leigh and Atherton. Reform UK predicted (12.7pp margin) Lewes. Lib Dem predicted (27.6pp margin) Lewisham East. Labour predicted (13.5pp margin) Lewisham North. Labour predicted (7.7pp margin) Lewisham West and East Dulwich. Labour predicted (10.7pp margin) Leyton and Wanstead. Labour predicted (7.9pp margin) Lichfield. Reform UK predicted (10.2pp margin) Lincoln. Reform UK predicted (6.4pp margin) Liverpool Garston. Labour predicted (10.2pp margin) Liverpool Riverside. Labour predicted (12.1pp margin) Liverpool Walton. Labour predicted (7.9pp margin) Liverpool Wavertree. Labour predicted (11.5pp margin) Liverpool West Derby. Labour predicted (8.9pp margin) Loughborough. Reform UK predicted (7.3pp margin) Louth and Horncastle. Reform UK predicted (11.4pp margin) Lowestoft. Reform UK predicted (17.6pp margin) Luton North. Labour predicted (2.8pp margin) Luton South and South Bedfordshire. Labour predicted (0.9pp margin) Macclesfield. Reform UK predicted (0.5pp margin) Maidenhead. Lib Dem predicted (14.3pp margin) Maidstone and Malling. Reform UK predicted (9.4pp margin) Makerfield. Reform UK predicted (18.4pp margin) Maldon. Reform UK predicted (9.8pp margin) Manchester Central. Labour predicted (7.1pp margin) Manchester Rusholme. Labour predicted (3.3pp margin) Manchester Withington. Labour predicted (7.7pp margin) Mansfield. Reform UK predicted (13.8pp margin) Melksham and Devizes. Lib Dem predicted (11.6pp margin) Melton and Syston. Reform UK predicted (3.7pp margin) Meriden and Solihull East. Reform UK predicted (5.1pp margin) Mid Bedfordshire. Reform UK predicted (5.6pp margin) Mid Buckinghamshire. Conservative predicted (2.6pp margin) Mid Cheshire. Reform UK predicted (7.0pp margin) Mid Derbyshire. Reform UK predicted (8.1pp margin) Mid Dorset and North Poole. Lib Dem predicted (10.8pp margin) Mid Leicestershire. Reform UK predicted (5.5pp margin) Mid Norfolk. Reform UK predicted (7.1pp margin) Mid Sussex. Lib Dem predicted (17.1pp margin) Middlesbrough and Thornaby East. Reform UK predicted (6.9pp margin) Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Conservative predicted (5.2pp margin) Milton Keynes Central. Reform UK predicted (1.5pp margin) Milton Keynes North. Reform UK predicted (2.3pp margin) Mitcham and Morden. Labour predicted (11.3pp margin) Morecambe and Lunesdale. Reform UK predicted (7.1pp margin) New Forest East. Conservative predicted (0.1pp margin) New Forest West. Reform UK predicted (2.7pp margin) Newark. Conservative predicted (1.3pp margin) Newbury. Lib Dem predicted (12.8pp margin) Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West. Labour predicted (1.3pp margin) Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend. Reform UK predicted (1.2pp margin) Newcastle upon Tyne North. Labour predicted (4.2pp margin) Newcastle-under-Lyme. Reform UK predicted (13.0pp margin) Newton Abbot. Lib Dem predicted (3.9pp margin) Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor. Reform UK predicted (11.3pp margin) Normanton and Hemsworth. Reform UK predicted (14.2pp margin) North Bedfordshire. Reform UK predicted (1.2pp margin) North Cornwall. Lib Dem predicted (22.3pp margin) North Cotswolds. Lib Dem predicted (0.9pp margin) North Devon. Lib Dem predicted (17.9pp margin) North Dorset. Lib Dem predicted (4.3pp margin) North Durham. Reform UK predicted (14.7pp margin) North East Cambridgeshire. Reform UK predicted (4.4pp margin) North East Derbyshire. Reform UK predicted (7.1pp margin) North East Hampshire. Lib Dem predicted (9.6pp margin) North East Hertfordshire. Reform UK predicted (7.2pp margin) North East Somerset and Hanham. Reform UK predicted (5.9pp margin) North Herefordshire. Green Party predicted (18.8pp margin) North Norfolk. Lib Dem predicted (12.1pp margin) North Northumberland. Reform UK predicted (7.7pp margin) North Shropshire. Lib Dem predicted (28.7pp margin) North Somerset. Conservative predicted (0.3pp margin) North Warwickshire and Bedworth. Reform UK predicted (18.0pp margin) North West Cambridgeshire. Reform UK predicted (8.1pp margin) North West Essex. Reform UK predicted (1.5pp margin) North West Hampshire. Reform UK predicted (2.3pp margin) North West Leicestershire. Reform UK predicted (10.0pp margin) North West Norfolk. Reform UK predicted (5.0pp margin) Northampton North. Reform UK predicted (4.1pp margin) Northampton South. Reform UK predicted (9.8pp margin) Norwich North. Reform UK predicted (6.3pp margin) Norwich South. Labour predicted (3.4pp margin) Nottingham East. Labour predicted (10.0pp margin) Nottingham North and Kimberley. Reform UK predicted (4.6pp margin) Nottingham South. Labour predicted (0.0pp margin) Nuneaton. Reform UK predicted (13.7pp margin) Old Bexley and Sidcup. Reform UK predicted (7.5pp margin) Oldham East and Saddleworth. Reform UK predicted (7.4pp margin) Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton. Independent predicted (6.9pp margin) Orpington. Reform UK predicted (3.8pp margin) Ossett and Denby Dale. Reform UK predicted (11.9pp margin) Oxford East. Labour predicted (12.4pp margin) Oxford West and Abingdon. Lib Dem predicted (33.6pp margin) Peckham. Labour predicted (10.5pp margin) Pendle and Clitheroe. Reform UK predicted (5.0pp margin) Penistone and Stocksbridge. Reform UK predicted (10.2pp margin) Penrith and Solway. Reform UK predicted (8.5pp margin) Peterborough. Reform UK predicted (1.4pp margin) Plymouth Moor View. Reform UK predicted (12.7pp margin) Plymouth Sutton and Devonport. Reform UK predicted (1.9pp margin) Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley. Reform UK predicted (14.8pp margin) Poole. Reform UK predicted (6.6pp margin) Poplar and Limehouse. Labour predicted (8.2pp margin) Portsmouth North. Reform UK predicted (10.4pp margin) Portsmouth South. Labour predicted (1.1pp margin) Preston. Reform UK predicted (4.1pp margin) Putney. Labour predicted (10.8pp margin) Queen's Park and Maida Vale. Labour predicted (12.6pp margin) Rawmarsh and Conisbrough. Reform UK predicted (14.3pp margin) Rayleigh and Wickford. Reform UK predicted (11.3pp margin) Reading Central. Labour predicted (7.0pp margin) Reading West and Mid Berkshire. Reform UK predicted (3.8pp margin) Redcar. Reform UK predicted (9.8pp margin) Redditch. Reform UK predicted (9.2pp margin) Reigate. Conservative predicted (0.7pp margin) Ribble Valley. Reform UK predicted (6.4pp margin) Richmond and Northallerton. Conservative predicted (7.4pp margin) Richmond Park. Lib Dem predicted (36.5pp margin) Rochdale. Workers Party predicted (6.7pp margin) Rochester and Strood. Reform UK predicted (15.3pp margin) Romford. Reform UK predicted (7.4pp margin) Romsey and Southampton North. Lib Dem predicted (3.9pp margin) Rossendale and Darwen. Reform UK predicted (11.5pp margin) Rother Valley. Reform UK predicted (8.5pp margin) Rotherham. Reform UK predicted (14.8pp margin) Rugby. Reform UK predicted (8.0pp margin) Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner. Conservative predicted (12.1pp margin) Runcorn and Helsby. Reform UK predicted (1.0pp margin) Runnymede and Weybridge. Conservative predicted (4.7pp margin) Rushcliffe. Reform UK predicted (1.2pp margin) Rutland and Stamford. Conservative predicted (4.8pp margin) Salford. Labour predicted (3.0pp margin) Salisbury. Conservative predicted (1.9pp margin) Scarborough and Whitby. Reform UK predicted (12.7pp margin) Scunthorpe. Reform UK predicted (11.6pp margin) Sefton Central. Labour predicted (2.8pp margin) Selby. Reform UK predicted (7.5pp margin) Sevenoaks. Reform UK predicted (1.2pp margin) Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough. Labour predicted (10.3pp margin) Sheffield Central. Labour predicted (0.9pp margin) Sheffield Hallam. Lib Dem predicted (1.0pp margin) Sheffield Heeley. Labour predicted (11.8pp margin) Sheffield South East. Labour predicted (14.6pp margin) Sherwood Forest. Reform UK predicted (14.4pp margin) Shipley. Reform UK predicted (3.6pp margin) Shrewsbury. Reform UK predicted (2.9pp margin) Sittingbourne and Sheppey. Reform UK predicted (16.6pp margin) Skipton and Ripon. Reform UK predicted (3.9pp margin) Sleaford and North Hykeham. Reform UK predicted (7.9pp margin) Slough. Labour predicted (4.0pp margin) Smethwick. Labour predicted (0.8pp margin) Solihull West and Shirley. Reform UK predicted (2.2pp margin) South Basildon and East Thurrock. Reform UK predicted (24.1pp margin) South Cambridgeshire. Lib Dem predicted (24.3pp margin) South Cotswolds. Lib Dem predicted (16.7pp margin) South Derbyshire. Reform UK predicted (10.8pp margin) South Devon. Lib Dem predicted (18.8pp margin) South Dorset. Reform UK predicted (8.0pp margin) South East Cornwall. Reform UK predicted (10.2pp margin) South Holland and The Deepings. Reform UK predicted (6.9pp margin) South Leicestershire. Reform UK predicted (5.9pp margin) South Norfolk. Reform UK predicted (7.5pp margin) South Northamptonshire. Reform UK predicted (3.6pp margin) South Ribble. Reform UK predicted (9.8pp margin) South Shields. Reform UK predicted (8.5pp margin) South Shropshire. Lib Dem predicted (0.7pp margin) South Suffolk. Reform UK predicted (8.2pp margin) South West Devon. Reform UK predicted (6.0pp margin) South West Hertfordshire. Conservative predicted (0.7pp margin) South West Norfolk. Reform UK predicted (15.7pp margin) South West Wiltshire. Reform UK predicted (4.6pp margin) Southampton Itchen. Reform UK predicted (7.7pp margin) Southampton Test. Reform UK predicted (0.3pp margin) Southend East and Rochford. Reform UK predicted (9.5pp margin) Southend West and Leigh. Reform UK predicted (8.6pp margin) Southgate and Wood Green. Labour predicted (11.3pp margin) Southport. Reform UK predicted (7.7pp margin) Spelthorne. Reform UK predicted (7.5pp margin) Spen Valley. Reform UK predicted (14.1pp margin) St Albans. Lib Dem predicted (39.8pp margin) St Austell and Newquay. Reform UK predicted (10.5pp margin) St Helens North. Reform UK predicted (4.9pp margin) St Helens South and Whiston. Reform UK predicted (2.8pp margin) St Ives. Lib Dem predicted (31.4pp margin) St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire. Lib Dem predicted (14.6pp margin) Stafford. Reform UK predicted (10.2pp margin) Staffordshire Moorlands. Reform UK predicted (12.8pp margin) Stalybridge and Hyde. Reform UK predicted (8.1pp margin) Stevenage. Reform UK predicted (8.4pp margin) Stockport. Labour predicted (0.3pp margin) Stockton North. Reform UK predicted (12.9pp margin) Stockton West. Conservative predicted (0.5pp margin) Stoke-on-Trent Central. Reform UK predicted (12.4pp margin) Stoke-on-Trent North. Reform UK predicted (14.7pp margin) Stoke-on-Trent South. Reform UK predicted (11.6pp margin) Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge. Conservative predicted (14.0pp margin) Stourbridge. Reform UK predicted (11.7pp margin) Stratford and Bow. Labour predicted (5.9pp margin) Stratford-on-Avon. Lib Dem predicted (18.5pp margin) Streatham and Croydon North. Labour predicted (9.3pp margin) Stretford and Urmston. Labour predicted (4.7pp margin) Stroud. Reform UK predicted (0.5pp margin) Suffolk Coastal. Reform UK predicted (7.3pp margin) Sunderland Central. Reform UK predicted (14.4pp margin) Surrey Heath. Lib Dem predicted (18.6pp margin) Sussex Weald. Reform UK predicted (3.2pp margin) Sutton and Cheam. Lib Dem predicted (14.3pp margin) Sutton Coldfield. Reform UK predicted (3.2pp margin) Swindon North. Reform UK predicted (7.4pp margin) Swindon South. Reform UK predicted (0.4pp margin) Tamworth. Reform UK predicted (15.8pp margin) Tatton. Conservative predicted (1.1pp margin) Taunton and Wellington. Lib Dem predicted (23.6pp margin) Telford. Reform UK predicted (12.6pp margin) Tewkesbury. Lib Dem predicted (19.0pp margin) The Wrekin. Reform UK predicted (9.3pp margin) Thirsk and Malton. Reform UK predicted (1.7pp margin) Thornbury and Yate. Lib Dem predicted (13.0pp margin) Thurrock. Reform UK predicted (12.1pp margin) Tipton and Wednesbury. Reform UK predicted (16.3pp margin) Tiverton and Minehead. Lib Dem predicted (12.2pp margin) Tonbridge. Conservative predicted (3.5pp margin) Tooting. Labour predicted (14.6pp margin) Torbay. Lib Dem predicted (12.5pp margin) Torridge and Tavistock. Reform UK predicted (5.7pp margin) Tottenham. Labour predicted (10.4pp margin) Truro and Falmouth. Reform UK predicted (1.6pp margin) Tunbridge Wells. Lib Dem predicted (21.4pp margin) Twickenham. Lib Dem predicted (42.0pp margin) Tynemouth. Reform UK predicted (1.1pp margin) Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Reform UK predicted (0.2pp margin) Vauxhall and Camberwell Green. Labour predicted (12.1pp margin) Wakefield and Rothwell. Reform UK predicted (8.3pp margin) Wallasey. Labour predicted (1.8pp margin) Walsall and Bloxwich. Reform UK predicted (9.0pp margin) Walthamstow. Labour predicted (10.4pp margin) Warrington North. Reform UK predicted (10.0pp margin) Warrington South. Reform UK predicted (3.5pp margin) Warwick and Leamington. Labour predicted (3.5pp margin) Washington and Gateshead South. Reform UK predicted (14.6pp margin) Watford. Reform UK predicted (0.4pp margin) Waveney Valley. Green Party predicted (16.0pp margin) Weald of Kent. Reform UK predicted (3.1pp margin) Wellingborough and Rushden. Reform UK predicted (11.7pp margin) Wells and Mendip Hills. Lib Dem predicted (24.2pp margin) Welwyn Hatfield. Reform UK predicted (2.8pp margin) West Bromwich. Reform UK predicted (5.3pp margin) West Dorset. Lib Dem predicted (21.3pp margin) West Ham and Beckton. Labour predicted (10.6pp margin) West Lancashire. Reform UK predicted (3.9pp margin) West Suffolk. Reform UK predicted (8.0pp margin) West Worcestershire. Conservative predicted (1.4pp margin) Westmorland and Lonsdale. Lib Dem predicted (44.1pp margin) Weston-super-Mare. Reform UK predicted (10.0pp margin) Wetherby and Easingwold. Conservative predicted (0.8pp margin) Whitehaven and Workington. Reform UK predicted (7.8pp margin) Widnes and Halewood. Labour predicted (1.7pp margin) Wigan. Reform UK predicted (7.8pp margin) Wimbledon. Lib Dem predicted (27.2pp margin) Winchester. Lib Dem predicted (28.7pp margin) Windsor. Conservative predicted (5.6pp margin) Wirral West. Reform UK predicted (1.7pp margin) Witham. Reform UK predicted (5.0pp margin) Witney. Lib Dem predicted (15.5pp margin) Woking. Lib Dem predicted (28.4pp margin) Wokingham. Lib Dem predicted (22.0pp margin) Wolverhampton North East. Reform UK predicted (12.4pp margin) Wolverhampton South East. Reform UK predicted (6.7pp margin) Wolverhampton West. Reform UK predicted (1.5pp margin) Worcester. Reform UK predicted (5.0pp margin) Worsley and Eccles. Reform UK predicted (5.3pp margin) Worthing West. Reform UK predicted (6.3pp margin) Wycombe. Reform UK predicted (1.5pp margin) Wyre Forest. Reform UK predicted (12.5pp margin) Wythenshawe and Sale East. Labour predicted (2.2pp margin) Yeovil. Lib Dem predicted (24.8pp margin) York Central. Labour predicted (6.2pp margin) York Outer. Reform UK predicted (0.9pp margin) Belfast East. DUP predicted (5.1pp margin) Belfast North. Sinn Féin predicted (12.0pp margin) Belfast South and Mid Down. SDLP predicted (23.4pp margin) Belfast West. Sinn Féin predicted (31.9pp margin) East Antrim. DUP predicted (2.7pp margin) East Londonderry. DUP predicted (0.4pp margin) Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Sinn Féin predicted (7.6pp margin) Foyle. SDLP predicted (8.4pp margin) Lagan Valley. Alliance predicted (4.9pp margin) Mid Ulster. Sinn Féin predicted (25.9pp margin) Newry and Armagh. Sinn Féin predicted (34.4pp margin) North Antrim. TUV predicted (1.6pp margin) North Down. Independent predicted (14.6pp margin) South Antrim. UUP predicted (14.3pp margin) South Down. Sinn Féin predicted (21.3pp margin) Strangford. DUP predicted (13.2pp margin) Upper Bann. DUP predicted (12.0pp margin) West Tyrone. Sinn Féin predicted (37.1pp margin) East Renfrewshire. Labour predicted (1.4pp margin) Na H Eileanan An Iar. Labour predicted (10.3pp margin) Midlothian. Labour predicted (1.2pp margin) North Ayrshire and Arran. SNP predicted (5.1pp margin) Orkney and Shetland. Lib Dem predicted (37.2pp margin) Aberdeen North. SNP predicted (13.5pp margin) Aberdeen South. SNP predicted (12.7pp margin) Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. SNP predicted (8.6pp margin) Airdrie and Shotts. Labour predicted (2.2pp margin) Alloa and Grangemouth. SNP predicted (0.4pp margin) Angus and Perthshire Glens. SNP predicted (15.6pp margin) Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. SNP predicted (12.5pp margin) Argyll Bute and South Lochaber. SNP predicted (16.9pp margin) Bathgate and Linlithgow. Labour predicted (3.1pp margin) Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. Lib Dem predicted (23.1pp margin) Coatbridge and Bellshill. SNP predicted (1.2pp margin) Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy. Labour predicted (1.6pp margin) Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch. SNP predicted (5.4pp margin) Dumfries and Galloway. SNP predicted (3.9pp margin) Dumfriesshire Clydesdale and Tweeddale. Conservative predicted (2.4pp margin) Dundee Central. SNP predicted (14.1pp margin) Dunfermline and Dollar. Labour predicted (2.4pp margin) East Kilbride and Strathaven. Labour predicted (2.1pp margin) Edinburgh East and Musselburgh. SNP predicted (5.8pp margin) Edinburgh North and Leith. Labour predicted (0.1pp margin) Edinburgh South. Labour predicted (15.5pp margin) Edinburgh South West. SNP predicted (0.5pp margin) Edinburgh West. Lib Dem predicted (31.1pp margin) Falkirk. SNP predicted (3.1pp margin) Glasgow East. SNP predicted (4.4pp margin) Glasgow North. SNP predicted (4.2pp margin) Glasgow North East. SNP predicted (2.3pp margin) Glasgow South. SNP predicted (4.4pp margin) Glasgow South West. SNP predicted (5.7pp margin) Glasgow West. SNP predicted (0.2pp margin) Glenrothes and Mid Fife. SNP predicted (6.9pp margin) Gordon and Buchan. SNP predicted (4.4pp margin) Hamilton and Clyde Valley. Labour predicted (4.5pp margin) Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West. SNP predicted (0.7pp margin) Inverness Skye and West Ross Shire. Lib Dem predicted (5.9pp margin) Livingston. SNP predicted (5.9pp margin) Lothian East. Labour predicted (9.7pp margin) Mid Dunbartonshire. Lib Dem predicted (18.8pp margin) Moray West Nairn and Strathspey. SNP predicted (7.9pp margin) Motherwell Wishaw and Carluke. SNP predicted (1.3pp margin) North East Fife. Lib Dem predicted (31.3pp margin) Paisley and Renfrewshire North. SNP predicted (1.3pp margin) Paisley and Renfrewshire South. SNP predicted (0.9pp margin) Perth and Kinross Shire. SNP predicted (13.5pp margin) Rutherglen. Labour predicted (2.6pp margin) Stirling and Strathallan. SNP predicted (8.2pp margin) West Dunbartonshire. SNP predicted (1.9pp margin) Ayr Carrick and Cumnock. SNP predicted (2.2pp margin) Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk. Conservative predicted (5.5pp margin) Central Ayrshire. Labour predicted (1.2pp margin) Kilmarnock and Loudoun. SNP predicted (3.5pp margin) West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. SNP predicted (0.3pp margin) Aberafan Maesteg. Reform UK predicted (2.8pp margin) Alyn and Deeside. Reform UK predicted (9.0pp margin) Bangor Aberconwy. Reform UK predicted (4.4pp margin) Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney. Labour predicted (17.8pp margin) Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Lib Dem predicted (5.9pp margin) Bridgend. Reform UK predicted (5.8pp margin) Caerfyrddin. Plaid Cymru predicted (8.0pp margin) Caerphilly. Reform UK predicted (6.6pp margin) Cardiff East. Labour predicted (1.8pp margin) Cardiff North. Labour predicted (1.8pp margin) Cardiff South and Penarth. Labour predicted (3.9pp margin) Cardiff West. Reform UK predicted (0.1pp margin) Ceredigion Preseli. Plaid Cymru predicted (27.5pp margin) Clwyd East. Reform UK predicted (5.2pp margin) Clwyd North. Reform UK predicted (6.2pp margin) Dwyfor Meirionnydd. Plaid Cymru predicted (32.8pp margin) Gower. Reform UK predicted (3.7pp margin) Llanelli. Reform UK predicted (14.0pp margin) Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare. Reform UK predicted (6.9pp margin) Mid and South Pembrokeshire. Reform UK predicted (5.5pp margin) Monmouthshire. Conservative predicted (1.0pp margin) Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr. Reform UK predicted (10.9pp margin) Neath and Swansea East. Reform UK predicted (10.0pp margin) Newport East. Reform UK predicted (4.4pp margin) Newport West and Islwyn. Reform UK predicted (5.9pp margin) Pontypridd. Reform UK predicted (4.8pp margin) Rhondda and Ogmore. Reform UK predicted (7.8pp margin) Swansea West. Reform UK predicted (0.5pp margin) Torfaen. Reform UK predicted (7.5pp margin) Vale of Glamorgan. Reform UK predicted (4.2pp margin) Wrexham. Reform UK predicted (5.1pp margin) Ynys Mon. Plaid Cymru predicted (7.5pp margin) All 650 Reform UK 324 Labour 131 Lib Dem 80 Conservative 41 SNP 35 Independent 7 Green Party 7 Sinn Féin 7 DUP 5 Plaid Cymru 4 Workers Party 3 SDLP 2 Speaker 1 Alliance 1 TUV 1 UUP 1
Hover a constituency for its predicted winner and margin. Click to read the full seat forecast.
Northern Irish coastline and Highland sea-lochs are simplified to keep the file under 250 KB.
Boundary data sourced from the ONS Open Geography Portal (PCS24 BUC, simplified with mapshaper).
Seats projection
How the new House of Commons would look Projected House of Commons composition shown as a horseshoe of seats coloured by party. 326-seat majority
Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin SDLP SDLP Workers Party Workers Party Workers Party Green Party Green Party Green Party Green Party Green Party Green Party Green Party Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP SNP Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour Labour 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Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK Reform UK SNP 35 Labour 131 Lib Dem 80 Conservative 41 Reform UK 324 Other 39 Reform UK 324 seats. 2 short of an overall majority.
Seat tally, full breakdown
Every party with a projected seat
That's a 193-seat lead for Reform UK over Labour.
Vote share
What share of the national vote each party would get Tightest contests
Top 50 marginals
The closest predicted contests on this forecast. These are the seats most likely to flip if the polling moves.
How accurate
Tested against the actual 2024 general election
We replayed the same model against the real 2024 general election using only what a forecaster running the model
in May 2024 would have known. The model called the winner correctly in
78.0% of constituencies, with an average gap of
4.52pp between predicted and actual party share.
Full accuracy record →
Caveats
What this forecast does and doesn't try to do It assumes a notional election held this week , using current Westminster polling. The next general election may be months or years away; the forecast will move with the polls.It does not predict turnout swings or campaign effects beyond what's already reflected in the polls. Late-campaign movement can be substantial.It does not assume tactical voting beyond the pattern observed in 2024. A formal pact between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, for example, is not modelled.Confidence intervals are not yet shown per seat. A future release will publish a high/low band on each constituency.
Read about the model at About , see the exact polling numbers feeding the forecast , or look up your own constituency at Find your ward .