Senedd 2026
The first election under the new closed-list PR system: 16 super-constituencies × 6 list seats each = 96 seats.
Archive · Thursday 7 May 2026
What we forecast for May 7 2026
Our pre-election forecast covered 156 English councils, 2,977 wards, and 26,805 candidates. 5,058 seats in total. The contests have all been counted.
For the actual results and a side-by-side accuracy audit, head to Past results. This page is preserved as the canonical record of what the model said before the count.
Headline projection
Reform UK ahead with 1,797 seats
Seats are awarded by ranking each ward's predicted party shares: the top N parties win the N seats up in that ward. How the model works →
How accurate
Tested against the actual May 2024 results
We replayed the same model against the real May 2024 contests across 2,977 wards. The model called the winner correctly in 82.7% of contests with an average gap of 5.69pp between predicted and actual party share.
English councils
156 councils on cycle
| Council | Wards | Seats up | Top forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adur | 14 | 14 | Reform UK(9) |
| Barking and Dagenham | 19 | 51 | Labour(19) |
| Barnet | 24 | 63 | Labour(21) |
| Barnsley | 21 | 63 | Reform UK(21) |
| Basildon | 14 | 14 | Reform UK(13) |
| Basingstoke and Deane | 18 | 19 | Reform UK(10) |
| Bexley | 17 | 45 | Reform UK(15) |
| Birmingham | 69 | 101 | Labour(48) |
| Blackburn with Darwen | 17 | 17 | Independent(8) |
| Bolton | 20 | 20 | Conservative(7) |
| Bradford | 29 | 87 | Reform UK(29) |
| Brent | 22 | 57 | Labour(22) |
| Brentwood | 13 | 14 | Reform UK(10) |
| Bromley | 22 | 58 | Reform UK(19) |
| Broxbourne | 10 | 10 | Conservative(9) |
| Burnley | 15 | 15 | Reform UK(11) |
| Bury | 16 | 16 | Labour(7) |
| Calderdale | 18 | 54 | Reform UK(18) |
| Cambridge | 14 | 15 | Labour(8) |
| Camden | 20 | 55 | Labour(17) |
| Cannock Chase | 12 | 13 | Reform UK(12) |
| Chelmsford | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| Cheltenham | 20 | 20 | Lib Dem(12) |
| Cherwell | 16 | 18 | Lib Dem(8) |
| Chesterfield | 1 | 2 | Reform UK(1) |
| Chorley | 14 | 14 | Labour(9) |
| City of Lincoln | 11 | 11 | Reform UK(9) |
| Colchester | 17 | 17 | Reform UK(6) |
| Coventry | 18 | 54 | Reform UK(18) |
| Crawley | 12 | 13 | Labour(5) |
| Croydon | 28 | 70 | Labour(20) |
| Dudley | 24 | 25 | Conservative(11) |
| Ealing | 24 | 70 | Reform UK(21) |
| East Hertfordshire | 1 | 1 | Conservative(1) |
| East Surrey | 36 | 72 | Reform UK(36) |
| East Sussex | 50 | 50 | Reform UK(23) |
| Eastleigh | 14 | 15 | Lib Dem(11) |
| Enfield | 25 | 63 | Reform UK(21) |
| Epping Forest | 18 | 18 | Conservative(8) |
| Essex | 77 | 77 | Reform UK(58) |
| Exeter | 13 | 14 | Reform UK(5) |
| Fareham | 16 | 16 | Reform UK(9) |
| Gateshead | 22 | 66 | Reform UK(22) |
| Gloucestershire | 1 | 1 | Lib Dem(1) |
| Gosport | 14 | 14 | Reform UK(7) |
| Great Yarmouth | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| Greenwich | 23 | 55 | Labour(22) |
| Guildford | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| Halton | 18 | 19 | Reform UK(11) |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | 21 | 50 | Reform UK(19) |
| Hampshire | 76 | 78 | Conservative(44) |
| Haringey | 21 | 57 | Labour(20) |
| Harlow | 11 | 11 | Reform UK(8) |
| Harrow | 22 | 55 | Labour(22) |
| Hart | 11 | 11 | Reform UK(4) |
| Hartlepool | 12 | 12 | Reform UK(12) |
| Hastings | 16 | 17 | Reform UK(9) |
| Havant | 12 | 12 | Reform UK(4) |
| Havering | 20 | 55 | Reform UK(19) |
| Hertfordshire | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| Hertsmere | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| Hillingdon | 20 | 51 | Reform UK(17) |
| Horsham | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| Hounslow | 22 | 62 | Labour(22) |
| Huntingdonshire | 26 | 52 | Reform UK(17) |
| Hyndburn | 11 | 11 | Reform UK(6) |
| Ipswich | 16 | 16 | Reform UK(15) |
| Isle of Wight | 39 | 39 | Conservative(13) |
| Islington | 17 | 51 | Labour(17) |
| Kensington and Chelsea | 18 | 50 | Conservative(15) |
| Kingston upon Hull | 19 | 19 | Reform UK(19) |
| Kingston upon Thames | 19 | 48 | Lib Dem(18) |
| Kirklees | 23 | 69 | Reform UK(23) |
| Knowsley | 15 | 16 | Labour(9) |
| Lambeth | 25 | 63 | Labour(23) |
| Leeds | 33 | 36 | Labour(14) |
| Lewes | 1 | 2 | Reform UK(1) |
| London Borough of Hackney | 21 | 57 | Labour(21) |
| London Borough of Lewisham | 19 | 54 | Labour(19) |
| London Borough of Newham | 24 | 66 | Labour(24) |
| London Borough of Tower Hamlets | 20 | 45 | Labour(17) |
| Manchester | 32 | 32 | Labour(30) |
| Merton | 20 | 57 | Reform UK(18) |
| Mid Sussex | 1 | 1 | Lib Dem(1) |
| Milton Keynes | 21 | 60 | Reform UK(21) |
| Newcastle upon Tyne | 26 | 78 | Reform UK(26) |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | 21 | 44 | Reform UK(21) |
| Newport | 1 | 1 | Conservative(1) |
| Norfolk | 84 | 84 | Reform UK(51) |
| North East Lincolnshire | 15 | 15 | Reform UK(15) |
| North Tyneside Council | 20 | 20 | Labour(11) |
| Norwich | 13 | 14 | Reform UK(10) |
| Nuneaton and Bedworth | 19 | 19 | Reform UK(19) |
| Oldham | 20 | 20 | Independent(8) |
| Oxford | 24 | 24 | Labour(10) |
| Pendle | 10 | 10 | Reform UK(6) |
| Peterborough | 18 | 18 | Reform UK(6) |
| Plymouth | 19 | 19 | Reform UK(18) |
| Portsmouth | 14 | 14 | Reform UK(9) |
| Powys | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| Preston | 16 | 16 | Reform UK(6) |
| Reading | 16 | 17 | Labour(10) |
| Redbridge | 22 | 63 | Labour(22) |
| Redditch | 9 | 9 | Reform UK(9) |
| Reigate and Banstead | 1 | 1 | Green Party(1) |
| Richmond upon Thames | 18 | 54 | Lib Dem(18) |
| Rochdale | 20 | 20 | Labour(12) |
| Rochford | 13 | 15 | Reform UK(11) |
| Rother | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| Rugby | 14 | 15 | Labour(4) |
| Rushmoor | 13 | 14 | Conservative(8) |
| Salford City Council | 20 | 21 | Labour(15) |
| Sandwell | 24 | 72 | Reform UK(24) |
| Sefton | 22 | 66 | Reform UK(22) |
| Sheffield | 28 | 30 | Reform UK(8) |
| Solihull | 17 | 51 | Reform UK(17) |
| Somerset | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| South Cambridgeshire | 26 | 45 | Lib Dem(21) |
| South Tyneside | 18 | 54 | Reform UK(18) |
| Southampton | 17 | 17 | Reform UK(17) |
| Southend-on-Sea | 17 | 17 | Reform UK(14) |
| Southwark | 23 | 63 | Labour(22) |
| St Albans | 20 | 22 | Lib Dem(16) |
| St. Helens | 17 | 46 | Reform UK(16) |
| Stevenage | 13 | 14 | Reform UK(8) |
| Stockport | 21 | 21 | Lib Dem(10) |
| Stratford-on-Avon | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| Suffolk | 69 | 70 | Reform UK(48) |
| Sunderland | 25 | 75 | Reform UK(25) |
| Surrey | 1 | 1 | Conservative(1) |
| Sutton | 20 | 55 | Reform UK(20) |
| Swindon | 25 | 57 | Reform UK(25) |
| Tameside | 19 | 19 | Labour(13) |
| Tamworth | 9 | 9 | Labour(4) |
| Three Rivers | 13 | 13 | Lib Dem(6) |
| Thurrock | 20 | 49 | Reform UK(20) |
| Trafford | 21 | 21 | Labour(13) |
| Tunbridge Wells | 13 | 15 | Reform UK(8) |
| Wakefield | 21 | 63 | Reform UK(21) |
| Walsall | 20 | 60 | Reform UK(20) |
| Waltham Forest | 22 | 60 | Labour(22) |
| Wandsworth | 22 | 58 | Reform UK(19) |
| Watford Borough Council | 12 | 12 | Lib Dem(12) |
| Welwyn Hatfield | 16 | 17 | Conservative(7) |
| West Lancashire | 15 | 15 | Reform UK(7) |
| West Northamptonshire | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| West Oxfordshire | 16 | 16 | Lib Dem(12) |
| West Suffolk | 1 | 1 | Reform UK(1) |
| West Surrey | 45 | 90 | Reform UK(45) |
| West Sussex | 70 | 70 | Reform UK(37) |
| Westminster | 18 | 54 | Conservative(18) |
| Wigan | 25 | 25 | Labour(14) |
| Winchester | 15 | 15 | Reform UK(9) |
| Wokingham | 18 | 19 | Lib Dem(8) |
| Wolverhampton | 20 | 21 | Labour(14) |
| Worthing | 13 | 13 | Reform UK(12) |
Devolved parliaments
Senedd Cymru and the Scottish Parliament
Scottish Parliament 2026
73 constituency seats (FPTP) + 56 regional list seats (d'Hondt) = 129 seats.