UK Elections Contest data. Forecasts. Backtests.
Search

Constituencies, councils, forecasts

Polling transparency

The numbers driving the forecast

Every UK Elections forecast applies a swing from the 2024 general-election result toward the latest Westminster polling. This page shows exactly what polling we're using right now, where it comes from, and how often it refreshes.

UK Westminster vote intention, current

What the polls say today

Labour
24.1% -9.6pp
Reform UK
24.1% +9.8pp
Conservative
20.1% -3.5pp
Green Party
12.0% +5.1pp
Lib Dem
10.9% -1.3pp
Restore
4.0% +4.0pp
SNP
2.9% +0.4pp
Plaid Cymru
1.0% +0.3pp

Coloured number is the change from the 4 July 2024 general-election result. Source: Wikipedia rolling 14-day average, 7 polls · plus Restore Britain overlay (4.0%, Wikipedia UK polling table, dedicated Restore Britain column: mean of the 2 polls in the rolling window that report RB separately), fieldwork 2026-08-03 to 2026-08-12. · Wikipedia source page.

Restore Britain overlay

How Restore Britain enters the numbers

Restore Britain 4.0%, applied as a national overlay. Since June 2026 Wikipedia's polling table carries a dedicated Restore Britain column, but only some pollsters prompt for the party; the rest leave it inside "Others". Our overlay is the mean of the polls that report RB separately, subtracted from "Other" so the total still sums to 100%. The per-seat parser at scripts/fetch-rb-annotations.mjs scans Wikipedia constituency pages for tabulated RB results; where it finds one, the per-seat share replaces the national overlay for that constituency.

Overlay source: Wikipedia UK polling table, dedicated Restore Britain column: mean of the 2 polls in the rolling window that report RB separately. Polls that fold RB into Others are excluded from this mean.. Retrieved 2026-08-14T04:30:12.243Z. · No per-seat overrides yet; run node scripts/fetch-rb-annotations.mjs to refresh.

Refresh history

What the rolling average has done

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%3 May10 May17 May24 May31 May7 Jun14 Jun21 Jun28 Jun5 Jul12 Jul19 Jul26 Jul2 Aug9 AugReform UK 25.4%Labour 18.2%Conservative 18.6%Green Party 16.3%Lib Dem 11.9%Reform UK 27.3%Labour 17.3%Conservative 18.4%Green Party 15.4%Lib Dem 12.7%Reform UK 27.3%Labour 17.3%Conservative 18.4%Green Party 15.4%Lib Dem 12.7%Reform UK 28.4%Labour 20.3%Conservative 18.7%Green Party 14.7%Lib Dem 12.5%Reform UK 25.6%Labour 20.8%Conservative 19.8%Green Party 13.5%Lib Dem 11.6%Reform UK 23.6%Labour 25.4%Conservative 19.7%Green Party 11.4%Lib Dem 10.8%Reform UK 23.6%Labour 25.4%Conservative 19.7%Green Party 11.4%Lib Dem 10.8%Reform UK 23.6%Labour 25.4%Conservative 19.7%Green Party 11.4%Lib Dem 10.8%Reform UK 23.6%Labour 25.4%Conservative 19.7%Green Party 11.4%Lib Dem 10.8%Reform UK 23.7%Labour 25.5%Conservative 19.7%Green Party 11.5%Lib Dem 10.7%Reform UK 23.5%Labour 25.3%Conservative 19.0%Green Party 12.2%Lib Dem 11.0%Reform UK 23.5%Labour 25.3%Conservative 19.0%Green Party 12.2%Lib Dem 11.0%Reform UK 23.7%Labour 25.2%Conservative 19.8%Green Party 11.6%Lib Dem 10.8%Reform UK 24.0%Labour 24.9%Conservative 19.7%Green Party 11.7%Lib Dem 11.0%Reform UK 24.1%Labour 24.1%Conservative 20.1%Green Party 12.0%Lib Dem 10.9%
Reform UK 24.1% Labour 24.1% Conservative 20.1% Green Party 12.0% Lib Dem 10.9%

Every successful refresh of the polling parser writes a snapshot to the ledger. The line chart above shows each party's share over time; the table below has the exact numbers. For the full picture, every individual poll plotted over time, with pollster house effects →

Refresh Polls used Reform UKLabourConservativeGreen PartyLib Dem
2026-08-14 7 24.1%24.1%20.1%12.0%10.9%
2026-08-13 7 24.0%24.9%19.7%11.7%11.0%
2026-08-12 8 23.7%25.2%19.8%11.6%10.8%
2026-08-11 7 23.5%25.3%19.0%12.2%11.0%
2026-08-10 7 23.5%25.3%19.0%12.2%11.0%
2026-08-09 11 23.7%25.5%19.7%11.5%10.7%
2026-08-08 10 23.6%25.4%19.7%11.4%10.8%
2026-08-08 10 23.6%25.4%19.7%11.4%10.8%
2026-08-08 10 23.6%25.4%19.7%11.4%10.8%
2026-08-08 10 23.6%25.4%19.7%11.4%10.8%
2026-07-11 13 25.6%20.8%19.8%13.5%11.6%
2026-05-26 9 28.4%20.3%18.7%14.7%12.5%
2026-05-19 8 27.3%17.3%18.4%15.4%12.7%
2026-05-19 8 27.3%17.3%18.4%15.4%12.7%
2026-04-26 12 25.4%18.2%18.6%16.3%11.9%

Movement between rows is real polling drift, not model noise. The parser averages every UK Westminster poll within a 14-day window per snapshot.

Devolved snapshots · elections concluded

Welsh + Scottish: final pre-election snapshots

The Senedd and Holyrood elections were held on 7 May 2026: Plaid Cymru now leads a minority Welsh government under Rhun ap Iorwerth with Green support, and the SNP won a fifth consecutive Scottish term with John Swinney continuing as First Minister. No pollster has published voting intention for the next devolved elections yet, so the table below is frozen at the final pre-election averages our forecasts used. It will pick up again when post-election fieldwork appears.

Country Source Fieldwork Top party Top share
Wales Wikipedia rolling 14-day average, 2 polls 2026-04-15 to 2026-04-22 Plaid Cymru 29.1%
Scotland Wikipedia rolling 14-day average, 1 polls 2026-05-20 to 2026-05-20 SNP 38.6%

How it works

From poll table to seat forecast

  1. Scrape. Daily, scripts/refresh-polling.mjs pulls the first wikitable from Wikipedia's UK Westminster polling page and parses every poll published in the last 14 days. The Welsh and Scottish sources are frozen at their final pre-election snapshots since the 7 May 2026 devolved elections.
  2. Average. Each party's share is the mean across those polls. The snapshot is written to data/polling/override.json; a copy lands in ledger.json.
  3. Overlay. Restore Britain is averaged over the polls that report it as a separate column and subtracted from "Other", so the total still sums to 100%.
  4. Swing. The seat forecast computes (current share − 2024 share) per party and applies a dampened version of that swing on top of each constituency's 2024 result.
  5. Allocate. The party with the most predicted votes in each constituency wins it. Seat tallies + national share roll up into summary.json.

Full methodology → · Current general-election forecast → · Polling last refreshed 2026-08-14.