UK Elections Contest data. Forecasts. Backtests.

Polling transparency

The numbers driving the forecast

Every UK Elections forecast applies a swing from the 2024 general-election result toward the latest Westminster polling. This page shows exactly what polling we're using right now, where it comes from, and how often it refreshes.

UK Westminster vote intention, current

What the polls say today

Reform UK
30.0% +15.7pp
Labour
23.0% -10.7pp
Conservative
18.0% -5.6pp
Lib Dem
13.0% +0.8pp
Green Party
9.0% +2.1pp
Other
3.7% -2.4pp
SNP
2.5% 0.0pp
Plaid Cymru
0.8% +0.1pp

Coloured number is the change from the 4 July 2024 general-election result. Source: PLACEHOLDER. Refresh from named pollster average before model run., fieldwork 2026-04-15 to 2026-04-25.

Refresh history

What the rolling average has done

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%3 May10 May17 May24 MayReform UK 25.4%Labour 18.2%Conservative 18.6%Green Party 16.3%Lib Dem 11.9%Reform UK 27.3%Labour 17.3%Conservative 18.4%Green Party 15.4%Lib Dem 12.7%Reform UK 27.3%Labour 17.3%Conservative 18.4%Green Party 15.4%Lib Dem 12.7%Reform UK 28.4%Labour 20.3%Conservative 18.7%Green Party 14.7%Lib Dem 12.5%Reform UK 28.8%Labour 20.9%Conservative 18.5%Green Party 14.1%Lib Dem 12.5%
Reform UK 28.8% Labour 20.9% Conservative 18.5% Green Party 14.1% Lib Dem 12.5%

Every successful refresh of the polling parser writes a snapshot to the ledger. The line chart above shows each party's share over time; the table below has the exact numbers.

Refresh Polls used Reform UKLabourConservativeGreen PartyLib Dem
2026-05-27 9 28.8%20.9%18.5%14.1%12.5%
2026-05-26 9 28.4%20.3%18.7%14.7%12.5%
2026-05-19 8 27.3%17.3%18.4%15.4%12.7%
2026-05-19 8 27.3%17.3%18.4%15.4%12.7%
2026-04-26 12 25.4%18.2%18.6%16.3%11.9%

Movement between rows is real polling drift, not model noise. The parser averages every UK Westminster poll within a 14-day window per snapshot.

Devolved snapshots

Welsh + Scottish vote intention

The Senedd 2026 and Holyrood 2026 forecasts use Wales-only and Scotland-only polling. Sample sizes are smaller and refresh windows can be longer than the UK-wide tracker. Be cautious of inference until a fresh Welsh field lands.

Country Source Fieldwork Top party Top share
Wales PLACEHOLDER. Refresh from Beaufort / YouGov Wales / ITV Wales poll before launch. 2026-04 Plaid Cymru 25.0%
Scotland PLACEHOLDER. Refresh from Survation / Ipsos / YouGov Scotland poll before launch. 2026-04 SNP 29.0%

How it works

From poll table to seat forecast

  1. Scrape. Weekly, scripts/refresh-polling.mjs pulls the first wikitable from Wikipedia's UK / Welsh / Scottish polling pages and parses every poll published in the last 14 days.
  2. Average. Each party's share is the mean across those polls. The snapshot is written to data/polling/override.json; a copy lands in ledger.json.
  3. Overlay. Restore Britain (which most pollsters bury inside "Others") is added back as a fixed 4% overlay subtracted from "Other".
  4. Swing. The seat forecast computes (current share − 2024 share) per party and applies a dampened version of that swing on top of each constituency's 2024 result.
  5. Allocate. The party with the most predicted votes in each constituency wins it. Seat tallies + national share roll up into summary.json.

Full methodology → · Current general-election forecast → · Polling last refreshed 2026-05-27.