General election forecast
Altrincham and Sale West
Predicted winner: Labour with 25.3% of the vote, a 0.6pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Connor Rand
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Rand | Labour Party | 20,798 | 40.4% |
| Oliver Carroll | Conservative and Unionist Party | 16,624 | 32.3% |
| Paul Swansborough | Reform UK | 4,961 | 9.6% |
| Jane Brophy | Lib Dem | 4,727 | 9.2% |
| Geraldine Coggins | Green Party | 3,699 | 7.2% |
| Faisal Kabir Nixon | Workers Party | 643 | 1.2% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Altrincham and Sale West, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Altrincham and Sale West
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 north_west prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 26.5% → Reform +1.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%