General election forecast

Birmingham Erdington

Predicted winner: Labour with 30.9% of the vote, a 0.9pp margin over Reform UK.

england · west midlands

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

Labour

30.9% +30.9pp

Reform UK

30.0% +7.3pp

Conservative

13.7% +13.7pp

Green Party

12.2% +5.0pp

Independent

6.8% +0.2pp

Lib Dem

4.2% +0.9pp

Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

1.1% -0.0pp

SNP

0.8% +0.8pp

Plaid Cymru

0.3% +0.3pp

Other

0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Paulette Hamilton

Party: Labour Party
Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
Status: standing again

What happened on 4 July 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Paulette Hamilton	Labour Party	14,774	43.3%
Jack Brookes	Reform UK	7,755	22.7%
Steven Richard Knee	Conservative and Unionist Party	5,402	15.8%
Karen Trench	Green Party	2,452	7.2%
Shaukat Ali	Independent	2,250	6.6%
Farzana Ann Aslam	Lib Dem	1,128	3.3%
Corinthia Ward	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	376	1.1%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Birmingham Erdington, and what actually happened.

✓ Winner called correctly , predicted Labour, actual Labour. Major-party MAE: 4.96pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Labour

53.4%

Reform UK

15.8%

Conservative

21.2%

Green Party

5.4%

Independent

0.3%

Lib Dem

2.8%

Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

0.0%

Workers Party

0.6%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Labour

43.3% +10.1pp

Reform UK

22.7% -7.0pp

Conservative

15.8% +5.4pp

Green Party

7.2% -1.8pp

Independent

6.6% -6.3pp

Lib Dem

3.3% -0.5pp

Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

1.1% -1.1pp

Workers Party

0.0% +0.6pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built

GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Birmingham Erdington
National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 west_midlands prior at weight 5%
Tactical Voting. Green Party → Labour: 2.0pp transfer (close 3-way)
English-identity floor. English 27.0% → Reform +1.0pp
Reform demographic ceiling. Muslim 15.5% → cap Reform at 30%; redistributed 6.5pp
Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →