General election forecast
Birmingham Selly Oak
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 28.6% of the vote, a 0.7pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Alistair Carns
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alistair Carns | Labour Party | 17,371 | 45.2% |
| Simon Dennis Phipps | Conservative and Unionist Party | 5,834 | 15.2% |
| Erin Crawford | Reform UK | 5,732 | 14.9% |
| Jane Louisa Baston | Green Party | 4,320 | 11.2% |
| Kamel Hawwash | Independent | 2,842 | 7.4% |
| David Stephen Radcliffe | Lib Dem | 2,324 | 6.0% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Birmingham Selly Oak, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Birmingham Selly Oak
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 west_midlands prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 26.9% → Reform +1.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%