General election forecast
Cities of London and Westminster
Predicted winner: Labour with 25.5% of the vote, a 0.9pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Rachel Blake
- Party: Labour and Co-operative Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: Labour Tracker MP page · TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Blake | Labour and Co-operative Party | 15,302 | 39.0% |
| Tim Barnes | Conservative and Unionist Party | 12,594 | 32.1% |
| Edward Lucas | Lib Dem | 4,335 | 11.1% |
| Rajiv Sinha | Green Party | 2,844 | 7.3% |
| Tarun Ghulati | Reform UK | 2,752 | 7.0% |
| Hoz Shafiei | Workers Party | 727 | 1.9% |
| Liz Burford | Rejoin EU | 352 | 0.9% |
| Hugo De Burgh | Social Democratic Party | 110 | 0.3% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Cities of London and Westminster, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Cities of London and Westminster
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 london prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%