General election forecast
Droitwich and Evesham
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 31.6% of the vote, a 0.8pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Nigel Huddleston
- Party: Conservative and Unionist Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Huddleston | Conservative and Unionist Party | 19,975 | 40.3% |
| Chippie Kalebe-Nyamongo | Labour Party | 10,980 | 22.1% |
| Sam Bastow | Reform UK | 9,456 | 19.1% |
| Oliver Yasha Walker | Lib Dem | 5,131 | 10.3% |
| Neil Franks | Green Party | 3,828 | 7.7% |
| Andrew Flaxman | Social Democratic Party | 239 | 0.5% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Droitwich and Evesham, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Droitwich and Evesham
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 west_midlands prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 36.2% → Reform +2.0pp
- Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 23.6% → Reform +0.20pp, Con +0.08pp (BES-dampened)
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%