General election forecast
Edinburgh North and Leith
Predicted winner: Labour with 26.7% of the vote, a 0.1pp margin over SNP.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Tracy Gilbert
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tracy Gilbert | Labour Party | 20,805 | 42.1% |
| Deidre Leanne Brock | Scottish National Party (SNP) | 13,537 | 27.4% |
| Kayleigh Ferguson Kinross-O'Neill | Scottish Green Party | 5,417 | 10.9% |
| Mike Andersen | Lib Dem | 3,879 | 7.8% |
| Jo Mowat | Conservative and Unionist Party | 3,254 | 6.6% |
| Alan Melville | Reform UK | 1,818 | 3.7% |
| David Don Jacobsen | Socialist Labour Party | 227 | 0.5% |
| Niel Deepnarain | Scottish Family Party | 210 | 0.4% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Edinburgh North and Leith, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Edinburgh North and Leith
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 scotland prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%