General election forecast
Edinburgh South West
Predicted winner: SNP with 26.5% of the vote, a 0.5pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Scott Arthur
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Arthur | Labour Party | 18,663 | 40.9% |
| Joanna Cherry | Scottish National Party (SNP) | 12,446 | 27.3% |
| Sue Webber | Conservative and Unionist Party | 5,558 | 12.2% |
| Dan Heap | Scottish Green Party | 3,450 | 7.6% |
| Bruce Wilson | Lib Dem | 3,014 | 6.6% |
| Ian Harper | Reform UK | 2,087 | 4.6% |
| Richard Crewe Lucas | Scottish Family Party | 265 | 0.6% |
| Marc Richard Wilkinson | Independent | 181 | 0.4% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Edinburgh South West, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Edinburgh South West
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 scotland prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%