General election forecast
Filton and Bradley Stoke
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 28.5% of the vote, a 1.0pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Claire Hazelgrove
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Hazelgrove | Labour Party | 22,905 | 45.5% |
| Jack Lopresti | Conservative and Unionist Party | 12,905 | 25.6% |
| Stephen James Burge | Reform UK | 6,819 | 13.5% |
| James William Nelson | Green Party | 4,142 | 8.2% |
| Benet Allen | Lib Dem | 3,596 | 7.1% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Filton and Bradley Stoke, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Filton and Bradley Stoke
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_west prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 29.9% → Reform +1.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%