General election forecast
Glasgow West
Predicted winner: SNP with 29.7% of the vote, a 0.2pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Patricia Ferguson
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patricia Ferguson | Labour Party | 18,621 | 46.7% |
| Carol Monaghan | Scottish National Party (SNP) | 12,175 | 30.5% |
| Nick Quail | Scottish Green Party | 3,662 | 9.2% |
| Dionne Moore | Reform UK | 2,098 | 5.3% |
| Faten Hameed | Conservative and Unionist Party | 1,720 | 4.3% |
| James Stuart Calder | Lib Dem | 1,316 | 3.3% |
| John Cormack | Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship" | 310 | 0.8% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Glasgow West, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Glasgow West
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 scotland prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%