General election forecast
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West
Predicted winner: SNP with 30.3% of the vote, a 0.7pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Martin McCluskey
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin McCluskey | Labour Party | 18,931 | 46.9% |
| Ronnie Cowan | Scottish National Party (SNP) | 12,560 | 31.1% |
| Ted Runciman | Conservative and Unionist Party | 2,863 | 7.1% |
| Simon Charles Wheeler Moorehead | Reform UK | 2,476 | 6.1% |
| Ross Stalker | Lib Dem | 1,259 | 3.1% |
| Iain Hamilton | Scottish Green Party | 1,173 | 2.9% |
| Christopher William McEleny | Alba Party | 723 | 1.8% |
| John Burleigh | Independent | 365 | 0.9% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 scotland prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%