General election forecast

Kensington and Bayswater

Predicted winner: Labour with 26.0% of the vote, a 0.2pp margin over Conservative.

england · london

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

Labour

26.0% +26.0pp

Conservative

25.8% +25.8pp

Reform UK

19.8% +13.8pp

Green Party

13.6% +7.1pp

Lib Dem

7.6% +0.7pp

Independent

4.3% -0.1pp

Rejoin EU

1.1% -0.1pp

SNP

0.8% +0.8pp

Plaid Cymru

0.3% +0.3pp

Party Of Women

0.3% +0.0pp

Christian Peoples Alliance

0.3% +0.0pp

Other

0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Joe Powell

Party: Labour Party
Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
Status: standing again

What happened on 4 July 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Joe Powell	Labour Party	17,025	40.6%
Felicity Buchan	Conservative and Unionist Party	14,122	33.7%
William Houngbo	Lib Dem	2,910	6.9%
Mona Adam	Green Party	2,732	6.5%
Marc Burca	Reform UK	2,514	6.0%
Emma Dent Coad	Independent	1,824	4.4%
John Stevens	Rejoin EU	486	1.2%
Una Marie O'Mahony	Party Of Women	116	0.3%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Kensington and Bayswater, and what actually happened.

✓ Winner called correctly , predicted Labour, actual Labour. Major-party MAE: 8.49pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Labour

42.6%

Conservative

16.4%

Lib Dem

23.4%

Green Party

4.9%

Reform UK

11.1%

Independent

0.3%

Rejoin EU

0.0%

Workers Party

0.6%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Labour

40.6% +1.9pp

Conservative

33.7% -17.3pp

Lib Dem

6.9% +16.4pp

Green Party

6.5% -1.6pp

Reform UK

6.0% +5.1pp

Independent

4.5% -4.3pp

Rejoin EU

1.2% -1.2pp

Workers Party

0.0% +0.6pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built

GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Kensington and Bayswater
National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 london prior at weight 5%
Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →