General election forecast
Leicester West
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 30.0% of the vote, a 0.3pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Liz Kendall
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Kendall | Labour Party | 15,798 | 44.6% |
| Max Chauhan | Conservative and Unionist Party | 7,021 | 19.8% |
| Ian Hayes | Reform UK | 5,666 | 16.0% |
| Aasiya Bora | Green Party | 4,089 | 11.6% |
| Benjamin Feist | Lib Dem | 2,179 | 6.2% |
| Rahoul Naik | One Leicester | 327 | 0.9% |
| Steve Score | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | 317 | 0.9% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Leicester West, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Leicester West
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 east_midlands prior at weight 5%
- Tactical Voting. Green Party → Labour: 2.8pp transfer (close 3-way)
- English-identity floor. English 23.9% → Reform +1.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%