General election forecast
Macclesfield
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 29.3% of the vote, a 0.5pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Tim Roca
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Roca | Labour Party | 24,672 | 46.7% |
| David Rutley | Conservative and Unionist Party | 15,552 | 29.5% |
| Steve Broadhurst | Reform UK | 6,592 | 12.5% |
| Amanda Jane Iremonger | Green Party | 2,493 | 4.7% |
| Neil Christian | Lib Dem | 2,482 | 4.7% |
| Christopher Wellavize | Independent | 779 | 1.5% |
| Dickie Fletcher | Social Democratic Party | 222 | 0.4% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Macclesfield, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Macclesfield
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 north_west prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 33.2% → Reform +2.0pp
- Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 23.7% → Reform +0.20pp, Con +0.08pp (BES-dampened)
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%