General election forecast

North Cotswolds

Predicted winner: Lib Dem with 27.3% of the vote, a 0.9pp margin over Conservative.

england · south west

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

Lib Dem

27.3% -0.7pp

Conservative

26.4% +26.4pp

Reform UK

24.0% +11.1pp

Labour

10.6% +10.6pp

Green Party

10.3% +3.9pp

Independent

0.8% -0.1pp

SNP

0.5% +0.5pp

Plaid Cymru

0.2% +0.2pp

Other

0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown

Party: Conservative and Unionist Party
Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
Status: standing again

What happened on 4 July 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	Conservative and Unionist Party	17,426	34.7%
Paul Hodgkinson	Lib Dem	14,069	28.0%
Anna Mainwaring	Labour Party	8,593	17.1%
Jason Preece	Reform UK	6,502	12.9%
Chloe Isobel Turner	Green Party	3,191	6.4%
Jean Annlyne Misseys Blackbeard	Independent	448	0.9%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for North Cotswolds, and what actually happened.

✓ Winner called correctly , predicted Conservative, actual Conservative. Major-party MAE: 3.68pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Conservative

35.4%

Lib Dem

18.3%

Labour

16.4%

Reform UK

17.5%

Green Party

9.1%

Independent

1.4%

Workers Party

0.8%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Conservative

34.7% +0.7pp

Lib Dem

28.0% -9.8pp

Labour

17.1% -0.7pp

Reform UK

12.9% +4.5pp

Green Party

6.3% +2.7pp

Independent

0.9% +0.5pp

Workers Party

0.0% +0.8pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built

GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in North Cotswolds
National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_west prior at weight 5%
English-identity floor. English 33.9% → Reform +2.0pp
Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 24.4% → Reform +0.20pp, Con +0.08pp (BES-dampened)
Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →