General election forecast
Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Predicted winner: SNP with 30.7% of the vote, a 0.9pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Johanna Baxter
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johanna Baxter | Labour Party | 19,583 | 47.4% |
| Jacqueline Cameron | Scottish National Party (SNP) | 13,056 | 31.6% |
| Jim McIlroy | Reform UK | 2,956 | 7.2% |
| Alec Leishman | Conservative and Unionist Party | 2,219 | 5.4% |
| Athol Bond | Scottish Green Party | 1,724 | 4.2% |
| Jack Clark | Lib Dem | 1,315 | 3.2% |
| Paul Mack | Independent | 317 | 0.8% |
| Mark Turnbull | Freedom Alliance | 113 | 0.3% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Paisley and Renfrewshire South, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Paisley and Renfrewshire South
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 scotland prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%