UK Elections Contest data. Forecasts. Backtests.
Location map of Runcorn and Helsby on the UK map

General election forecast

Runcorn and Helsby

Predicted winner: Reform UK with 35.3% of the vote, a 1.0pp margin over Labour.

england · north west

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

Reform UK
35.3% +17.2pp
Labour
34.3% +34.3pp
Green Party
11.5% +5.1pp
Conservative
10.8% +10.8pp
Lib Dem
4.7% -0.4pp
The Liberal Party
1.2% +0.1pp
Independent
0.6% +0.6pp
SNP
0.6% +0.6pp
Social Democratic Party
0.2% -0.1pp
Plaid Cymru
0.2% +0.2pp
Workers Party
0.2% +0.2pp
Rejoin EU
0.1% +0.1pp
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
0.1% +0.1pp
English Democrats
0.1% +0.1pp
Volt United Kingdom
0.1% +0.1pp
English Constitution Party
0.0% 0.0pp
Other
0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Sarah Joanne Pochin

See also: TheyWorkForYou

2024 general election result

What happened on 4 July 2024

CandidatePartyVotesShare
Mike Amesbury Labour Party 22,358 52.9%
Jason Moorcroft Reform UK 7,662 18.1%
Jade Marsden Conservative and Unionist Party 6,756 16.0%
Chris Copeman Green Party 2,715 6.4%
Chris Rowe Lib Dem 2,149 5.1%
Dan Clarke The Liberal Party 479 1.1%
Paul Andrew Murphy Social Democratic Party 116 0.3%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Runcorn and Helsby, and what actually happened.

✓ Winner called correctly , predicted Labour, actual Labour. Major-party MAE: 1.34pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Labour
50.6%
Reform UK
17.7%
Conservative
18.3%
Green Party
6.0%
Lib Dem
6.3%
The Liberal Party
0.0%
Workers Party
0.5%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Labour
52.9% -2.3pp
Reform UK
18.1% -0.5pp
Conservative
16.0% +2.3pp
Green Party
6.4% -0.4pp
Lib Dem
5.1% +1.2pp
The Liberal Party
1.1% -1.1pp
Workers Party
0.0% +0.5pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built
  1. GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Runcorn and Helsby
  2. National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
  3. BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 north_west prior at weight 5%
  4. Incumbency / Retirement. Reform UK: defected, treated as open seat → -1.5pp
  5. English-identity floor. English 35.1% → Reform +2.0pp
  6. Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 20.8% → Reform +0.20pp, Con +0.08pp (BES-dampened)
  7. By-Election Overlay. Blended 30% of recent by-election result for Runcorn and Helsby
  8. Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →