General election forecast

Smethwick

Predicted winner: Labour with 30.0% of the vote, a 0.8pp margin over Reform UK.

england · west midlands

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

Labour

30.0% +30.0pp

Reform UK

29.2% +13.1pp

Green Party

14.3% +6.5pp

Conservative

10.4% +10.4pp

Workers Party

6.6% -0.4pp

Independent

4.5% +0.7pp

Lib Dem

3.5% +0.6pp

SNP

0.8% +0.8pp

Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

0.4% -0.1pp

Plaid Cymru

0.3% +0.3pp

Other

0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Gurinder Singh Josan

Party: Labour Party
Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
Status: standing again

What happened on 4 July 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Gurinder Singh Josan	Labour Party	16,858	48.0%
Pete Durnell	Reform UK	5,670	16.1%
Kate Fairhurst	Conservative and Unionist Party	4,546	12.9%
Roderick MacRorie	Green Party	2,741	7.8%
Nahim Rubani	Workers Party	2,449	7.0%
Jay Anandou	Independent	1,322	3.8%
Oliver Patrick	Lib Dem	1,018	2.9%
Christopher Alexander Graham	Independent	348	1.0%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Smethwick, and what actually happened.

✓ Winner called correctly , predicted Labour, actual Labour. Major-party MAE: 4.13pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Labour

63.0%

Reform UK

14.1%

Conservative

12.7%

Green Party

5.4%

Workers Party

0.5%

Independent

0.0%

Lib Dem

3.8%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Labour

48.0% +15.0pp

Reform UK

16.2% -2.0pp

Conservative

13.0% -0.3pp

Green Party

7.8% -2.4pp

Workers Party

7.0% -6.4pp

Independent

4.8% -4.8pp

Lib Dem

2.9% +0.9pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built

GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Smethwick
National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 west_midlands prior at weight 5%
Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →