General election forecast
Stroud
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 28.1% of the vote, a 0.5pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Simon Opher
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Opher | Labour Party | 25,607 | 46.4% |
| Siobhan Baillie | Conservative and Unionist Party | 14,219 | 25.7% |
| Chris Lester | Reform UK | 6,329 | 11.5% |
| Pete Kennedy | Green Party | 5,729 | 10.4% |
| George William James | Lib Dem | 2,913 | 5.3% |
| Saskia Whitfield | Independent | 261 | 0.5% |
| Jason Philip Hughes | Volt United Kingdom | 163 | 0.3% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Stroud, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Stroud
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_west prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 34.0% → Reform +2.0pp
- Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 23.3% → Reform +0.20pp, Con +0.08pp (BES-dampened)
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%