General election forecast
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 26.9% of the vote, a 0.2pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Danny Beales
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Beales | Labour Party | 16,599 | 36.2% |
| Steve Tuckwell | Conservative and Unionist Party | 16,012 | 34.9% |
| Tim Wheeler | Reform UK | 6,610 | 14.4% |
| Sarah Charmian Green | Green Party | 4,354 | 9.5% |
| Ian Rex-Hawkes | Lib Dem | 1,752 | 3.8% |
| Gary Lee Harbord | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | 223 | 0.5% |
| Steve Gardner | Social Democratic Party | 200 | 0.4% |
| Geoff Courtenay | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 164 | 0.4% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 london prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%