General election forecast
York Outer
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 28.4% of the vote, a 0.9pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Luke Charters
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Charters | Labour Party | 23,161 | 45.3% |
| Julian Sturdy | Conservative and Unionist Party | 13,770 | 26.9% |
| John Edward Crispin-Bailey | Reform UK | 5,912 | 11.6% |
| Andrew Hollyer | Lib Dem | 5,496 | 10.8% |
| Michael Robin Kearney | Green Party | 2,212 | 4.3% |
| David James Eadington | Yorkshire Party | 260 | 0.5% |
| Keith Andrew Hayden | Independent | 141 | 0.3% |
| Hal Aenas Mayne | Independent | 88 | 0.2% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for York Outer, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in York Outer
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 yorkshire prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 34.4% → Reform +2.0pp
- Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 25.4% → Reform +0.40pp, Con +0.20pp (BES-dampened)
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%