Result · Thursday, 18 June 2026
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election
SNP hold. Lara Bird (Scottish National Party) won on 41.2%, a 5,278-vote majority (+22.2pp) over Jack Cruickshanks (Conservative, 19.0%). Turnout 31.4%. Scotland · S14000091.
Declared result (vote share)
- Scottish National Party 41.2% Lara Bird
- Conservative 19.0% Jack Cruickshanks
- Reform UK 18.3% Bill Reid
- Labour 15.4% Heather Doran
- Lib Dem 6.1% Tanvir Ahmad
Trigger
Why this seat was contested
Stephen Gethins (Scottish National Party) Gethins won the Holyrood seat of Dundee City East on 7 May 2026; the dual-mandate ban (Scottish Elections (Representation and Reform) Act 2025) forced his resignation from the Commons on 14 May 2026.
Declared result · 18 June 2026
Full result
| Party | Votes | Share | Swing vs GE2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 9,802 | 41.2% | +5.9pp |
| Conservative | 4,524 | 19.0% | +3.5pp |
| Reform UK | 4,341 | 18.3% | +9.7pp |
| Labour | 3,651 | 15.4% | -18.0pp |
| Lib Dem | 1,452 | 6.1% | +1.0pp |
| Majority | 5,278 | 22.2pp | n/a |
| Turnout | 23,827 | 31.4% | n/a |
Source: returning officer declaration via primary record.
The signal · no constituency polls existed
What the freshest data pointed to
No published constituency polling for this by-election (confirmed by PollCheck and Ballot Box Scotland). By-elections get no broadcaster exit poll either. The signal below is the substitute.
Pre-election call: Ballot Box Scotland: Likely SNP.
7 May 2026 Holyrood overlap
Angus South (Holyrood constituency, ~94% overlap). Angus South covers ~94% of the Westminster seat and, crucially, the SAME Reform (Bill Reid) and Labour (Heather Doran) candidates stood here five weeks before the by-election. Constituency (first) vote.
- Scottish National Party 42.3%
- Conservative 21.3%
- Reform UK 17.8%
- Labour 10.7%
- Lib Dem 7.9%
GE2024 baseline (4 Jul 2024)
The year-old general-election result, a naive prior.
- Scottish National Party 35.3%
- Labour 33.4%
- Conservative 15.5%
- Reform UK 8.6%
- Lib Dem 5.1%
- Other 2.1%
Scorecard · how every forecaster did
Forecasts vs result
| Forecaster | Type | Predicted winner | Share MAE | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual result | declared | Scottish National Party | n/a | n/a |
| UK Elections Holyrood signal · 7 May (basis) | signal | Scottish National Party | 2.1pp | ✓ |
| Electoral Calculus (GE seat model) · 9 May | seat model | Scottish National Party | 3.0pp | ✓ |
| UK Elections GE seat model · 19 May | seat model | Scottish National Party | 3.9pp | ✓ |
| GE2024 result (naive prior) · 4 Jul 2024 | baseline | Scottish National Party | 7.6pp | ✓ |
| Betting markets (eve of poll) · 17 Jun | market | Scottish National Party (90%) | n/a | ✓ |
| Ballot Box Scotland (qualitative) · 6 Jun | qualitative | Scottish National Party | n/a | ✓ |
How every forecaster did, graded against the declared result. No constituency poll or bespoke by-election model existed for this seat; the entries are the freshest signal, the Electoral Calculus GE-model seat estimate, betting markets, and the Ballot Box Scotland qualitative call. MAE is over each forecaster's reported parties.
The signal nailed it. The 7 May 2026 Holyrood result in Angus South (which covers ~94% of this seat, with the SAME Reform and Labour candidates) was SNP 42.3 / Con 21.3 / Reform 17.8 / Lab 10.7 / LD 7.9. The by-election five weeks later: SNP 41.2 / Con 19.0 / Reform 18.3 / Lab 15.4 / LD 6.1. Almost a carbon copy, and a comfortable SNP hold exactly as Ballot Box Scotland's 'Likely SNP' call expected.
The GE2024 baseline, by contrast, would have badly misframed the contest: it had Labour second on 33.4%, a 1.9-point SNP-Labour marginal. The Holyrood signal correctly captured what GE2024 could not: Labour had collapsed (to ~11-15%) and that Reform had risen to overtake them for third. Here the freshest actual-vote signal beat the year-old general-election prior decisively.
Reform UK's 18.3% (up 9.7pp on GE2024, third place) is the structural story: in a seat where it polled 8.6% at the general election, Reform now runs ahead of both Labour and, at Holyrood, tracked almost exactly. The SNP's vote was remarkably stable through a collapse in turnout (58% to 31%), which is what a safe-ish incumbent hold looks like.