Mayoral projections · Supplementary vote
The May 2027 mayoral races, projected
Five directly elected mayoral contests are scheduled for 6 May 2027: the first mayors of
Cumbria and Cheshire and Warrington, and re-elections in
Bedford, Middlesbrough and Mansfield. They are the first
scheduled elections under the restored supplementary vote, so winning takes a top-two finish
and then a transfer round. We project each race two ways and give win probabilities from
2,000 simulated runs.
⚠ Party-level projections, not seat calls.
No candidates are confirmed for most of these races and no constituency polling exists for any of them.
Mayoral contests have strong candidate effects that no model can see before nominations close, so the bands
are wide by design. Each method is shown separately and they are never blended into a single headline
number. When the methods disagree on the likely winner, we say so.
Polling day6 May 2027all five contests
First elections2 mayorsCumbria · Cheshire and Warrington
Re-elections3 mayorsBedford · Middlesbrough · Mansfield
Voting systemSupplementary voterestored 18 June 2026
The system changed back. The English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act 2026 (Royal Assent 29 April 2026, section 63 and Schedule 30) restored the supplementary vote for mayoral and PCC elections. Commencement: SI 2026/656 brought the change into force on 18 June 2026 for elections whose notice is published on or after that date. The 7 May 2026 mayoral elections were the last under first past the post; every contest below uses the supplementary vote.
How the supplementary vote changes the race
Top two, then transfers
Voters mark a first and second preference. If nobody clears 50 percent, everyone but the top two is
eliminated and their ballots transfer to whichever finalist their second preference names, if either.
Leading the first round is not enough: in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester by-election, the first contest
under the restored system, Labour's Bev Craig converted a 47 percent first round into a 66 to 34 final round
as transfers broke heavily against the Reform UK finalist. That transfer behaviour, plus the pre-2022
supplementary vote record, calibrates the runoff model here, with deliberately wide uncertainty.
May 2027 · five contests
The projections
GE2024 base + national swing
Central forecast, projected vote share
Labour 27.4%
Reform UK 25.8%
Conservative 22.0%
Lib Dem 16.4%
Labour 48% 1st pref 27.4% (19.0-33.8) Reform UK 31% 1st pref 25.8% (17.7-31.9) Conservative 16% 1st pref 22.0% (13.8-28.4) Lib Dem 5% 1st pref 16.4% (8.3-23.0)
Most likely runoff: Labour v Reform UK
(49% of runs), median final round
Reform UK 49% · Labour 51%.
Declared so far: Mike Starkie (Conservative, former Copeland mayor), Libby Bateman (Liberal Democrats), David Allen (Labour and Co-operative, sitting Cumbria police, fire and crime commissioner). Reform UK and the Green Party had not named candidates as of 6 August 2026.
GE2024 base + national swing
Central forecast, projected vote share
Labour 35.4%
Reform UK 25.4%
Conservative 22.7%
Green Party 9.7%
Labour 74% 1st pref 35.4% (26.7-42.3) Reform UK 16% 1st pref 25.4% (16.9-31.5) Conservative 10% 1st pref 22.7% (14.1-28.9)
Most likely runoff: Labour v Reform UK
(57% of runs), median final round
Labour 54% · Reform UK 46%.
No declared candidates found as of 6 August 2026.
⚠ Method split. Our two methods disagree on the likely winner
(Labour vs Lib Dem). No blended call is made;
read both rows.
GE2024 base + national swing
Central forecast, projected vote share
Labour 28.8%
Conservative 25.8%
Reform UK 23.2%
Green Party 10.3%
Lib Dem 8.6%
Labour 53% 1st pref 28.8% (21.1-35.3) Conservative 30% 1st pref 25.8% (17.9-32.0) Reform UK 17% 1st pref 23.2% (15.3-29.4) Green Party 1% 1st pref 10.3% (2.4-17.2)
Most likely runoff: Conservative v Labour
(52% of runs), median final round
Conservative 49% · Labour 51%.
2023 mayoral result + proportional swing
Central forecast, projected vote share
Lib Dem 36.5%
Conservative 20.8%
Green Party 14.0%
Reform UK 13.1%
Labour 13.0%
Lib Dem 93% 1st pref 36.5% (26.8-44.5) Conservative 4% 1st pref 20.8% (12.2-28.2) Green Party 2% 1st pref 14.0% (4.9-21.0) Labour 1% 1st pref 13.0% (4.2-20.3) Reform UK 1% 1st pref 13.1% (4.5-20.2)
Most likely runoff: Conservative v Lib Dem
(57% of runs), median final round
Lib Dem 59% · Conservative 41%.
⚠ Method split. Our two methods disagree on the likely winner
(Labour vs Independent). No blended call is made;
read both rows.
GE2024 base + national swing
Central forecast, projected vote share
Labour 37.4%
Conservative 23.2%
Reform UK 22.3%
Green Party 8.7%
Labour 85% 1st pref 37.4% (28.7-43.9) Conservative 9% 1st pref 23.2% (15.7-29.2) Reform UK 7% 1st pref 22.3% (14.8-28.4)
Most likely runoff: Conservative v Labour
(54% of runs), median final round
Labour 56% · Conservative 45%.
2023 mayoral result + proportional swing
Central forecast, projected vote share
Independent 43.4%
Labour 20.6%
Reform UK 12.6%
Independent 91% 1st pref 43.4% (33.4-51.7) Labour 7% 1st pref 20.6% (12.3-28.0) Reform UK 2% 1st pref 12.6% (3.7-20.3)
Most likely runoff: Independent v Labour
(68% of runs), median final round
Independent 57% · Labour 43%.
Scheduled for 6 May 2027 per the council's own elections page, but Nottinghamshire local government reorganisation is expected to abolish the district and the mayoralty around 2028, and the council has explored scrapping the post. Treat as scheduled until nominations close; re-verify then.
⚠ Method split. Our two methods disagree on the likely winner
(Reform UK vs Labour). No blended call is made;
read both rows.
GE2024 base + national swing
Central forecast, projected vote share
Reform UK 33.2%
Labour 30.2%
Conservative 25.6%
Reform UK 64% 1st pref 33.2% (24.8-38.8) Labour 22% 1st pref 30.2% (21.6-35.8) Conservative 14% 1st pref 25.6% (17.6-31.1)
Most likely runoff: Labour v Reform UK
(63% of runs), median final round
Labour 47% · Reform UK 53%.
2023 mayoral result + proportional swing
Central forecast, projected vote share
Independent 26.5%
Labour 25.7%
Conservative 17.7%
Reform UK 14.1%
Labour 54% 1st pref 25.7% (17.1-33.4) Independent 26% 1st pref 26.5% (17.7-34.2) Conservative 13% 1st pref 17.7% (8.9-25.1) Reform UK 5% 1st pref 14.1% (5.6-21.5) Green Party 1% 1st pref 6.8% (0.0-14.7) Lib Dem 1% 1st pref 6.4% (0.0-14.1)
Most likely runoff: Independent v Labour
(59% of runs), median final round
Labour 52% · Independent 48%.
The one everyone asks about
No Mayor of Lancashire on any ballot
NO Lancashire mayoral election is scheduled and nothing is confirmed by order. This models what a county-wide supplementary vote mayoral contest WOULD look like on today's numbers, because the question keeps being asked. It is not a forecast of any scheduled election and will be replaced by a real forecast only if a contest is confirmed.
Full Mayor of Lancashire page: methods, transfer evidence, and where the vote lives, ward by ward →
⚠ Method split, and it is the whole story here. Current national polling
(Labour vs Reform UK) and Lancashire's
own recent local votes point at different winners. No blended call is made; read both rows.
GE2024 base + national swing
Central forecast, projected vote share
Labour 27.9%
Reform UK 26.9%
Conservative 19.8%
Green Party 10.2%
Labour 46% 1st pref 27.9% (20.4-35.1) Reform UK 44% 1st pref 26.9% (19.3-33.6) Conservative 9% 1st pref 19.8% (12.4-26.6)
Most likely runoff: Labour v Reform UK
(69% of runs), median final round
Reform UK 50% · Labour 50%.
Lancashire local signal (unitaries model)
Central forecast, projected vote share
Reform UK 34.5%
Labour 20.5%
Conservative 18.2%
Green Party 11.0%
Reform UK 93% 1st pref 34.5% (27.1-41.5) Labour 5% 1st pref 20.5% (13.7-26.6) Conservative 2% 1st pref 18.2% (11.3-24.3)
Most likely runoff: Labour v Reform UK
(57% of runs), median final round
Reform UK 57% · Labour 43%.
Read the caveats before quoting a number: - Hypothetical: no election exists, no date, no candidates, no confirmed mayoral geography. The Lancashire Combined County Authority is non mayoral.
- The supplementary vote transfer calibration leans on the Greater Manchester by-election, a much more Labour leaning electorate than Lancashire. The transfer split is bloc symmetric (a Reform finalist gains eliminated Conservative second preferences at the same rate a Labour finalist gains Green and Liberal Democrat ones), but Restore Britain sits inside Other and is split 50/50, which likely understates Reform transfers in a Reform strong county. Treat Labour's runoff edge, where it appears, as an upper bound.
- Turnout for a standalone mayoral contest would be low and uneven; neither base fully captures that.
Watchlist
Unresolved contests
Mayor of Leicester unresolved
Nominally due in May 2027, but Leicestershire reorganisation (two unitaries from April 2028, shadow elections May 2027) makes the contest uncertain and the city mayor has said the post is very likely to be scrapped. A 2023 council vote to abolish it failed 20 to 32. No confirmation either way that a May 2027 city mayoral election will be held; not forecast.
Looking ahead · 4 May 2028
The 2028 slate, on the roster
May 2028 contests are listed as a roster only. Forecasting a mayoral contest 21 months out, before candidates are known, would not pass our quality gate; these get forecasts closer to the contests. Date of 4 May 2028 is per the statutory cycle and contest pages; no SI level confirmation of the exact day has been sighted.
Re-elections
| Mayoralty | Incumbent |
|---|
| Mayor of London and London Assembly Khan standing for a fourth term; Laila Cunningham declared for Reform UK. The supplementary vote is expected but GLA specific conduct rules were still awaited; re-verify before any forecast. | Sadiq Khan (Labour) |
| Mayor of Greater Manchester Craig won the 30 July 2026 by-election triggered by Andy Burnham's election as an MP; section 17 of the 2026 Act requires a strategic mayor elected to the Commons to resign within eight days. | Bev Craig (Labour and Co-operative) |
| Mayor of the Liverpool City Region | Steve Rotheram (Labour) |
| Mayor of the North East | Kim McGuinness (Labour) |
| Mayor of Tees Valley | Ben Houchen (Conservative) |
| Mayor of South Yorkshire | Oliver Coppard (Labour) |
| Mayor of the West Midlands | Richard Parker (Labour) |
| Mayor of West Yorkshire | Tracy Brabin (Labour) |
| Mayor of York and North Yorkshire | David Skaith (Labour) |
| Mayor of the East Midlands | Claire Ward (Labour) |
| City Mayor of Salford | Paul Dennett (Labour) |
First elections
| Mayoralty | Status |
|---|
| Mayor of Hampshire and the Solent | Authority created 4 June 2026; mayoral election 4 May 2028. The strongest confirmed of the four delayed devolution priority programme areas. |
| Mayor of Greater Essex | Election announced for 4 May 2028; establishment order not yet verified as made. |
| Mayor of Norfolk and Suffolk | Election announced for May 2028; establishment order not yet verified as made. |
| Mayor of Sussex and Brighton | Election announced for 4 May 2028; establishment order not yet verified as made. |
All four first election areas are being reorganised under LGR before vesting, so constituent councils are described as areas, not fixed council lists.
London 2028: published polling
Published 2028 London voting intention, shown as reported. Not a forecast.
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Labour | Green Party | Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dem |
|---|
| Opinium | July 2026 | 32% | 18% | 17% | 17% | 10% |
| Savanta | July 2026 | 33% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 9% |
Source
Methodology
Methods are reported separately and are never blended into a single point estimate. Where methods disagree on the most likely winner the contest is reported as method-split. Party-level projections only until nominations close; candidate effects in mayoral contests are large and the bands are wide by design.
- ge_swing_2024 · GE2024 base + national swing: General election 2024 results across the Cumberland, Westmorland and Furness area (6 constituencies apportioned by live postcode share), moved by the uniform national swing between GE2024 and the latest Westminster poll average (10 polls, fieldwork to 2026-08-05). No local dampening applied; mayoral contests routinely deviate from national swing, which the bands reflect.
- prior_swing · 2023 mayoral result + proportional swing: The mayoralty's own 2023 first-preference result, with each party moved by the ratio of its national polling now (10 polls, fieldwork to 2026-08-05) to its approximate May 2023 level, clamped at x2.5. Parties that did not stand in 2023 but poll above 5% nationally enter at 60% of their national number. Independent votes are carried at their prior level, which only holds if comparable independents stand again. This method carries the incumbency and local-machine signal the GE method misses.
Does the method work? The one live test so far
The GE-base method, run on the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, 30 July 2026 exactly as we run it above, gives a per-party
error of 4.8pp MAE and
called the winner correctly.
The method called the Labour winner correctly but understated Labour's first round by a wide margin: a well known incumbent-adjacent candidate on a 25% turnout beat her party's national baseline decisively. That gap is exactly the candidate effect these projections cannot see before nominations, and it is why the bands are wide and the prior_swing method exists.
| Party | Projected 1st pref | Actual | Error |
|---|
| Labour | 34.4% | 47.1% | -12.7pp |
| Reform UK | 26.7% | 21.0% | 5.7pp |
| Green Party | 12.6% | 12.2% | 0.4pp |
| Other | 4.6% | 8.7% | -4.1pp |
| Conservative | 11.9% | 7.7% | 4.2pp |
| Lib Dem | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.6pp |
| Independent | 2.4% | 0.6% | 1.8pp |
Result source: GM Elects
Caveats
- Projections are party level. Mayoral contests have strong candidate effects (independents and well known local figures routinely beat party baselines) which cannot be modelled before nominations close.
- The supplementary vote transfer model is calibrated on a thin base: one Reform era SV contest (Greater Manchester, 30 July 2026) plus the pre-2022 SV era. Transfer parameters carry deliberately wide noise.
- The GE swing method applies uniform national swing to a general election base; local and mayoral elections routinely deviate from national swing (differential turnout, local parties, incumbency).
- Mansfield is forecast subject to its caveat: Nottinghamshire reorganisation may abolish the post, and the contest should be re-verified when nominations open.
- No constituency level polling exists for any May 2027 mayoral contest as of generation; the first published poll for a contest supersedes these baselines (wire it in, per the Makerfield lesson).
Sources
Model ukelections.mayoral.v1.0.0 · target: May 2027 mayoral elections (supplementary vote) · national polling anchor: 10 polls, fieldwork to 2026-08-05 ·
generated 2026-08-08.