Lancashire local government reorganisation · Ward-by-ward forecast
Four new Lancashire unitaries, ward by ward
On 16 July 2026 the government chose to replace Lancashire's fifteen councils with four new unitary
authorities. The first elections are the May 2027 shadow-authority elections. This
forecasts all 107 proposed wards and 313 councillors from the most recent
votes cast, then runs the result 2,000 times to size up each council's control.
⚠ Scaffold forecast. Proposed wards, no election yet.
The government's decision is subject to Parliamentary approval and the warding is the
proposed warding, hypothetical until confirmed through the statutory boundary process. Seats
are allocated under first-past-the-post bloc vote: a safe ward's seats all go to the leading party, but a
close runner-up picks off a seat, and those marginal wards are where most of the uncertainty sits. Blackpool's
wards are built from its May 2023 all-out borough election with the party levels corrected to its 2024-26
by-elections and general election result, the oldest base in the model, which is why the Fylde Coast range
stays wide. A first estimate, not a result.
Decision16 July 2026Secretary of State
New councils4 unitaries313 councillors
First electionsMay 2027shadow authorities
Vesting day1 April 2028new councils take over
A note on names. None of the unitary names below are statutory. The six sponsoring councils' business case used North Lancashire / Fylde Coast / South Lancashire / East Lancashire; the county council's post-decision press release used North / West / East / South Lancashire, which confusingly reuses 'West Lancashire' for both a new unitary and a folded-in district. ('Pennine Lancashire' is the name of the rejected 3-unitary model's eastern unit, not a 4-unitary unit.) Preston's leader has said publicly it is 'too early to even know what our new unitary authority's name will be'. Treat all labels as working geographic shorthand only.
Voting system: first past the post. First-past-the-post, confirmed. Elections to English principal councils, including the new unitaries and their May 2027 shadow authorities, are held under first-past-the-post (multi-member wards use the bloc vote). This is set by general law, not just precedent: the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act 2026, the same Act that creates these unitaries and reformed mayoral and PCC elections (moving them back to the supplementary vote), deliberately left principal-council elections on first-past-the-post. Campaigners pressed for STV in council elections during the Bill's passage; it was not adopted. A directly-elected Lancashire mayor, if one is created for 2027, would be a separate contest under the supplementary vote and does not affect this council seat model.
The government's model · Chorley, Lancaster, Preston, Ribble Valley, South Ribble and West Lancashire councils ('Four Lancashire for the Future')
The four new unitaries, forecast
West Lancashire (Fylde Coast)
Blackpool · Fylde · Wyre
Reform UK largest, majority on a knife-edge
74 seats · majority needs 38 ·
Reform UK 91% to be largest ·
NOC 57%
| Party | Seats | Range |
|---|
| Reform | 36 | 27-47 |
| Labour | 18 | 10-26 |
| Con | 17 | 11-24 |
| Ind | 2 | 0-4 |
All 25 wards (13 split/marginal)
| Ward | Cllrs | Projected seats | Lead |
|---|
| Anchorsholme and Norbreck | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 6.5pp ·mrg |
| Bispham and Warbreck | 3 | Labour 2Reform 1 | 1.4pp ·mrg |
| Bloomfield and Tyldesley | 3 | Labour 2Reform 1 | 3.2pp ·mrg |
| Claremont and Talbot | 3 | Labour 3 | 14.3pp |
| Clifton and Marton | 3 | Labour 3 | 10.6pp |
| Greenlands and Ingthorpe | 3 | Labour 2Reform 1 | 5.8pp ·mrg |
| Highfield and Stanley | 3 | Reform 2Labour 1 | 1.2pp ·mrg |
| Layton and Brunswick | 3 | Labour 3 | 13.8pp |
| Park | 2 | Labour 2 | 16.1pp |
| Victoria and Hawes Side | 3 | Labour 3 | 11.4pp |
| Waterloo and Squires Gate | 3 | Reform 3 | 11.6pp |
| Fylde East | 3 | Reform 2Ind 1 | 2.8pp ·mrg |
| Fylde South | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 3.1pp ·mrg |
| Fylde West | 3 | Con 2Reform 1 | 7pp ·mrg |
| Lytham | 3 | Con 2Ind 1 | 9.7pp ·mrg |
| St Annes North | 3 | Con 2Reform 1 | 2.1pp ·mrg |
| St Annes South | 3 | Con 2Reform 1 | 6.5pp ·mrg |
| Cleveleys East | 3 | Reform 3 | 16.5pp |
| Cleveleys South & Carleton | 3 | Reform 3 | 22.7pp |
| Fleetwood East | 3 | Reform 3 | 30.1pp |
| Fleetwood West & Cleveleys West | 3 | Reform 3 | 35.9pp |
| Poulton-le-Fylde | 3 | Con 3 | 14.2pp |
| Thornton & Hambleton | 3 | Reform 3 | 22.4pp |
| Wyre Rural Central | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 5.3pp ·mrg |
| Wyre Rural East | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 8.2pp ·mrg |
72 seats · majority needs 37 ·
Reform UK 100% to be largest ·
NOC 57%
| Party | Seats | Range |
|---|
| Reform | 36 | 28-43 |
| Lib Dem | 11 | 7-16 |
| Green | 11 | 9-14 |
| Labour | 7 | 3-12 |
| Ind | 4 | 2-6 |
| Con | 3 | 0-6 |
All 24 wards (11 split/marginal)
| Ward | Cllrs | Projected seats | Lead |
|---|
| Heysham | 3 | Reform 3 | 21.3pp |
| Lancaster Central | 3 | Green 3 | 42.7pp |
| Lancaster East | 3 | Green 3 | 33.6pp |
| Lancaster Rural East | 3 | Reform 2Lib Dem 1 | 0.3pp ·mrg |
| Lancaster Rural North | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 2pp ·mrg |
| Lancaster South East | 3 | Green 3 | 31.4pp |
| Morecambe Central | 3 | Reform 2Lib Dem 1 | 6.1pp ·mrg |
| Morecambe North | 3 | Reform 3 | 23.5pp |
| Morecambe South | 3 | Reform 3 | 25.3pp |
| Skerton | 3 | Reform 2Green 1 | 7.2pp ·mrg |
| Preston Central East | 3 | Ind 3 | 14.5pp |
| Preston Central West | 3 | Labour 2Reform 1 | 4.5pp ·mrg |
| Preston City | 3 | Labour 2Ind 1 | 6.3pp ·mrg |
| Preston East | 3 | Reform 3 | 13.2pp |
| Preston North | 3 | Lib Dem 3 | 15.5pp |
| Preston Rural East (Preston Rural) | 2 | Reform 1Lib Dem 1 | 6.6pp ·mrg |
| Preston Rural North (Preston Rural) | 2 | Reform 1Lib Dem 1 | 6.6pp ·mrg |
| Preston South East | 3 | Labour 2Reform 1 | 1.3pp ·mrg |
| Preston South West | 3 | Lib Dem 2Reform 1 | 6.9pp ·mrg |
| Preston West | 3 | Lib Dem 3 | 11.9pp |
| Clitheroe | 4 | Reform 3Lib Dem 1 | 9pp ·mrg |
| Longridge with Bowland | 3 | Reform 3 | 11.8pp |
| Ribble Valley North East | 4 | Reform 4 | 14pp |
| Ribble Valley South West | 3 | Reform 3 | 23.2pp |
95 seats · majority needs 48 ·
Reform UK 97% to win control ·
NOC 3%
| Party | Seats | Range |
|---|
| Reform | 56 | 51-61 |
| Ind | 21 | 18-24 |
| Labour | 6 | 3-11 |
| Con | 6 | 3-10 |
| Lib Dem | 3 | 1-4 |
| Green | 2 | 0-3 |
All 34 wards (12 split/marginal)
| Ward | Cllrs | Projected seats | Lead |
|---|
| Audley & Queen's Park and Blackburn South East | 3 | Ind 3 | 11.3pp |
| Bastwell & Daisyfield and Shear Brow & Corporation Park | 3 | Ind 2Labour 1 | 4.1pp ·mrg |
| Billinge & Beardwood | 2 | Ind 2 | 25.1pp |
| Livesey with Pleasington | 2 | Reform 2 | 18.7pp |
| Blackburn Central and Wensley Fold | 3 | Labour 2Ind 1 | 1.9pp ·mrg |
| Blackburn South & Lower Darwen and Darwen East | 3 | Reform 3 | 31.3pp |
| Darwen South and Darwen West | 3 | Reform 3 | 18.2pp |
| Ewood and Mill Hill & Moorgate | 3 | Reform 3 | 36.6pp |
| Little Harwood & Whitebirk and Roe Lee | 3 | Ind 3 | 27.6pp |
| West Pennine | 2 | Reform 2 | 10.1pp |
| Burnley Central East | 3 | Ind 2Reform 1 | 6pp ·mrg |
| Burnley Central West | 3 | Reform 3 | 27.3pp |
| Burnley North East | 3 | Ind 3 | 33.8pp |
| Burnley Rural | 3 | Reform 3 | 23.3pp |
| Burnley South West | 3 | Reform 3 | 31.2pp |
| Padiham & Burnley West | 3 | Reform 3 | 18pp |
| Accrington North | 3 | Reform 3 | 32.9pp |
| Accrington South | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 9.3pp ·mrg |
| Accrington West & Oswaldtwistle Central | 3 | Green 2Con 1 | 4.1pp ·mrg |
| Great Harwood, Rishton & Clayton Le Moors 1 (Rishton, Clayton-Le-Moors and Altham) | 3 | Reform 3 | 21.7pp |
| Great Harwood, Rishton & Clayton Le Moors 2 (Netherton and Overton) | 2 | Reform 2 | 21.7pp |
| Oswaldtwistle | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 1.1pp ·mrg |
| Brierfield and Nelson West | 3 | Ind 3 | 52.2pp |
| Nelson East | 3 | Ind 3 | 25.8pp |
| Pendle Central | 3 | Reform 3 | 24.4pp |
| Pendle Hill | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 2pp ·mrg |
| South Pendle Rural (part of Waterside & Horsfield and Boulsworth & Foulridge) | 2 | Reform 1Lib Dem 1 | 1.6pp ·mrg |
| Mid Pendle Rural (Earby & Coates) | 2 | Reform 1Lib Dem 1 | 1.6pp ·mrg |
| North Pendle Rural (part of Barrowford & Pendleside and Barnoldswick) | 2 | Reform 1Lib Dem 1 | 1.6pp ·mrg |
| Mid-Rossendale | 3 | Reform 3 | 15.6pp |
| Rossendale East | 3 | Reform 3 | 32.2pp |
| Rossendale South | 3 | Reform 3 | 15pp |
| Rossendale West | 3 | Reform 2Labour 1 | 0.9pp ·mrg |
| Whitworth & Bacup | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 7.9pp ·mrg |
72 seats · majority needs 37 ·
Reform UK 87% to win control ·
NOC 13%
| Party | Seats | Range |
|---|
| Reform | 45 | 35-54 |
| Labour | 14 | 7-22 |
| Con | 9 | 4-14 |
| Lib Dem | 3 | 3-3 |
| Green | 1 | 0-3 |
All 24 wards (12 split/marginal)
| Ward | Cllrs | Projected seats | Lead |
|---|
| Chorley Central | 3 | Labour 2Reform 1 | 1pp ·mrg |
| Chorley North | 3 | Reform 2Labour 1 | 4.7pp ·mrg |
| Chorley Rural East | 3 | Labour 3 | 11.9pp |
| Chorley Rural West | 3 | Reform 2Labour 1 | 7.7pp ·mrg |
| Chorley South | 3 | Reform 2Green 1 | 8.9pp ·mrg |
| Clayton with Whittle | 3 | Labour 2Reform 1 | 3.3pp ·mrg |
| Euxton, Buckshaw & Astley | 3 | Con 2Reform 1 | 0.2pp ·mrg |
| Hoghton with Wheelton | 3 | Reform 2Labour 1 | 6.3pp ·mrg |
| Leyland Central | 3 | Reform 3 | 13.9pp |
| Leyland South | 3 | Reform 3 | 14.6pp |
| Lostock Hall & Bamber Bridge | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 8pp ·mrg |
| Moss Side & Farington | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 5.8pp ·mrg |
| Penwortham East & Walton-le-dale | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 6.1pp ·mrg |
| Penwortham West | 3 | Lib Dem 3 | 27.2pp |
| South Ribble East | 3 | Reform 3 | 16.5pp |
| South Ribble West | 3 | Reform 3 | 11pp |
| Burscough & Rufford | 3 | Reform 3 | 10.3pp |
| Ormskirk | 3 | Labour 2Reform 1 | 21.5pp |
| Skelmersdale Central | 3 | Reform 3 | 18.8pp |
| Skelmersdale East | 3 | Reform 3 | 18pp |
| Skelmersdale West | 3 | Reform 3 | 16.9pp |
| West Lancashire East | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 21.6pp |
| West Lancashire North | 3 | Con 2Reform 1 | 7.9pp ·mrg |
| West Lancashire West | 3 | Reform 2Con 1 | 9.7pp ·mrg |
The options that lost
How the vote splits under the rejected models
Five configurations were submitted; the government picked four. The rejected 3- and 5-unitary bids have no
ward plan, so only their vote share can be compared. Reform leads in almost every proposed unitary under
every model; the coastal units anchored by Blackpool are the ones genuinely competitive with Labour.
Three-unitary model rejected · Wyre, Blackburn with Darwen, Hyndburn, Fylde and Rossendale councils
| Proposed unitary | Districts | Reform | Labour | Projected |
|---|
| Central Lancashire | Chorley, Preston, South Ribble, West Lancashire | 33.3% | 23.3% | Reform UK likely largest party |
| Coastal Lancashire | Blackpool, Fylde, Lancaster, Wyre | 36.3% | 19.2% | Reform UK likely largest party |
| Pennine Lancashire | Blackburn with Darwen, Burnley, Hyndburn, Pendle, Ribble Valley, Rossendale | 36.1% | 18.1% | Reform UK likely largest party |
Five-unitary model rejected · Burnley and Pendle councils
| Proposed unitary | Districts | Reform | Labour | Projected |
|---|
| East | Burnley, Pendle, Rossendale | 37.5% | 14.2% | Reform UK likely largest party |
| Middle | Blackburn with Darwen, Hyndburn, Ribble Valley | 34.9% | 21.4% | Reform UK likely largest party |
| North | Lancaster, Wyre | 37.3% | 18.0% | Reform UK likely largest party |
| South | Chorley, South Ribble, West Lancashire | 35.7% | 24.6% | Reform UK likely largest party |
| West | Blackpool, Fylde, Preston | 32.2% | 20.5% | Reform UK likely largest party |
Independent method · demographic propensity
What the demographics alone say
A completely different way to read the same 107 wards. The
demographic ward model never sees a local result: it
scores each proposed ward from its Census 2021 structure, occupational mix, ward-bridged GE2024 shares and
the national polling level, using a machine-learning model walk-forward validated at 4.4pp share error on
the unseen May 2026 results. It is shown here as a second opinion on Reform's structural position under
three named national environments. The two methods are independent and are never blended.
| Unitary | Seats | GE 2024 environment (Reform 14.3%) | Current polling (Reform 23.8%) | May 2025 environment (Reform ~29%) |
| Fylde Coast/West | 74 | 15 | 50 | 53 |
| Pennine/East | 95 | 4 | 47 | 50 |
| South | 72 | 3 | 35 | 37 |
| North | 72 | 4 | 27 | 28 |
| All four unitaries | 313 | 26 | 159 | 168 |
Cells are expected Reform seats (sum of calibrated win probability × councillors per ward). The spread across
environments is the point: on structure alone, Reform's 2027 seat count is highly sensitive to the national
mood on polling day, and the model is only valid inside the polling range it was trained on (Reform 14-30%
nationally). Demographic propensity, not a contest forecast: no candidates, no incumbency, no local parties.
Where the two methods disagree, that disagreement is information about how much a ward's recent results
diverge from its structure.
Methodology
Ward-by-ward forecast against the proposed warding for the four new unitaries (107 wards, 313 councillors; hypothetical, awaiting confirmation through the statutory boundary process). Lancashire County Council's 82 divisions return 84 councillors (Great Harwood, Rishton and Clayton-le-Moors and Pendle Rural each elect two members); division results enter the model as vote shares, so multi-member divisions are handled consistently here and in the mayoral model. Each ward predicted from its LCC 2025 division result (nudged by the district's observed 2025->2026 borough and by-election swing where one exists; districts with no 2026 contest borrow a shrunk swing from demographically similar districts, weighted by a Gaussian kernel over standardised Census 2021 profiles and validated leave-one-out), the constituent Blackburn 2026 borough wards, or a Blackpool proxy. Seats allocated under first-past-the-post bloc vote: the leading party's slate sweeps a safe ward, but a runner-up within 10 points picks off one seat (two in a near-tied four-seat ward). Seat ranges and majority probabilities from a seeded 2,000-draw Monte Carlo. The rejected 3- and 5-unitary bids have no warding and are shown as district-aggregate vote share only.
The forecast runs against the actual proposed warding for the four-unitary model: 313
councillors across 107 wards. Most proposed wards are the existing Lancashire County Council divisions, so
each is predicted from its own May 2025 county result, then nudged by the swing between that county vote and
the district's May 2026 borough election and any 2025-26 by-elections; districts with no 2026 contest borrow
a validated, shrunk swing from demographically similar districts. Blackburn's wards combine its May 2026
borough wards directly; Blackpool's are its May 2023 ward results with party levels corrected to the 2024-26
by-elections and GE2024. Each ward's councillors go to the winning party, and the
whole council is simulated 2,000 times with correlated district-level
swings to produce the seat ranges and the majority and no-overall-control probabilities.
- The government's decision (16 July 2026) is subject to Parliamentary approval via a Structural Change Order.
- The warding is proposed and hypothetical: it awaits confirmation through the statutory boundary process before the May 2027 elections, and ward names and councillor counts may change.
- Seats use first-past-the-post bloc vote: the leading party sweeps a safe ward, and a runner-up within 10 points takes one seat (two in a near-tied four-seat ward). Marginal wards are flagged; their split is where most of the uncertainty sits.
- Blackpool wards are built from the May 2023 all-out borough election (council-declared results, cross-verified), aggregated onto the proposed merged wards, with a volume-weighted swing from Blackpool by-elections since. 2023 is the oldest base in the model, so these wards carry wider noise.
- The 3- and 5-unitary options were rejected and have no ward plan, so only their vote share is shown.
- Three county divisions (Preston Rural, Great Harwood/Rishton/Clayton-le-Moors, Pendle Rural) each feed more than one proposed ward; those sibling wards inherit the same division result, so differences between them within the division are not modelled.
- Districts without a May 2026 election carry a borrowed swing from demographically similar districts (shrunk 0.7x, wider ward noise). The leave-one-out error of that transfer, versus freezing those districts at May 2025, is published in data_vintage.swing_validation.
Data vintage by district
Not every district votes at the same time, so the model's inputs age unevenly. Districts with a May 2026
borough election carry an observed 2025→2026 swing; districts without one borrow a shrunk swing from
demographically similar districts (Census 2021 profiles), and a lone by-election nudges its district in
proportion to its votes rather than speaking for it. The table shows where each district's swing comes
from. Transferred swing is validated leave-one-out across the districts where the answer is known:
at the chosen shrink of 0.5, the transfer error is
2.53pp per party against
2.62pp if those districts were simply
frozen at their May 2025 result.
| District | Swing source | Own-signal weight | Borrowed from |
|---|
| burnley | observed 2026 | 0.75 | not needed |
| chorley | observed 2026 | 0.79 | not needed |
| fylde | blended own plus borrowed | 0.16 | chorley, west-lancashire, hyndburn |
| hyndburn | observed 2026 | 0.62 | not needed |
| lancaster | blended own plus borrowed | 0.11 | chorley, west-lancashire, hyndburn |
| pendle | observed 2026 | 0.71 | not needed |
| preston | observed 2026 | 0.8 | not needed |
| ribble-valley | borrowed demographic | 0 | chorley, west-lancashire, hyndburn |
| rossendale | blended own plus borrowed | 0.24 | west-lancashire, chorley, hyndburn |
| south-ribble | blended own plus borrowed | 0.11 | chorley, west-lancashire, hyndburn |
| west-lancashire | observed 2026 | 0.79 | not needed |
| wyre | borrowed demographic | 0 | west-lancashire, chorley, hyndburn |
What if the national mood carries into May 2027?
The central forecast assumes May 2027 votes like Lancashire voted in 2025-26. National polling has moved
since (fieldwork 2026-07-27 to 2026-08-05:
Reform -6.4pp, Labour +2.4pp against
the spring 2026 baseline). Our 2024 backtest found national swing carries into local results at only about a
tenth of its strength, so the calibrated scenario barely moves the forecast; the full-strength row is a
stress bound, not a prediction. Scenarios are shown separately and never blended into the central call.
| Scenario | Fylde Coast/West | North | Pennine/East | South |
|---|
| National drift, calibrated (0.10) | Ref 35 (25-45), maj 35% | Ref 35 (27-42), maj 37% | Ref 55 (50-61), maj 97% | Ref 43 (33-53), maj 80% |
| National drift, full (stress bound) | Ref 23 (16-32), maj 2% | Ref 25 (17-33), maj 3% | Ref 46 (40-52), maj 40% | Ref 29 (19-40), maj 18% |
Sources
Model ukelections.lancashire-unitaries.v0.2.0-wardlevel · target: May 2027 shadow-authority elections · subject to Parliamentary approval (Structural Change Order).