Scottish Parliament 2026 · Scaffold forecast

129 seats. Additional Member System

73 FPTP constituency seats + 56 d'Hondt regional list seats across 8 regions.

⚠ Scaffold forecast, not yet calibrated against named Scottish polling. This page is published as a methodology sketch only. The polling input is a pre-launch placeholder (the file metadata flags refresh_required_by: 2026-05-01) and the boundary mapping for the new Central Scotland and Lothians West / Edinburgh and Lothians East regions is partial. Treat the seat totals below as illustrative until we publish a calibrated v1 with a current Survation/Ipsos/YouGov Scotland field. Tracked under the comprehensive model roadmap.

Methodology in brief

2026 brought boundary changes to the regional structure (a new "Central Scotland and Lothians West" + "Edinburgh and Lothians East" pair). The forecast applies current Scotland-wide polling uniformly per constituency, with constituency-level 2021 baselines where available, and runs d'Hondt per region with prior-seats apportioned as the Scotland-wide constituency wins divided across the 8 regions. Region-specific baselines and exact constituency-to-region mapping under the new boundaries are a planned upgrade.

Total seat projection (129 seats)

Scotland-wide

Party	Constituency (FPTP)	List (d'Hondt)	Total (central)
SNP	67	5	72
Labour	2	20	22
Alba	0	15	15
Liberal Democrats	3	7	10
Conservative	1	9	10
Green Party	0	0	0
Reform UK	0	0	0
Other	0	0	0

Constituencies

73 FPTP predictions

Constituency	Predicted winner	Top share
Aberdeen Central	SNP	36.2%
Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine	SNP	38.6%
Aberdeen Donside	SNP	41.6%
Aberdeenshire East	SNP	36.0%
Aberdeenshire West	SNP	31.5%
Airdrie	SNP	38.6%
Almond Valley	SNP	43.8%
Angus North and Mearns	SNP	39.2%
Angus South	SNP	40.9%
Argyll and Bute	SNP	39.9%
Ayr	SNP	35.0%
Banffshire and Buchan Coast	SNP	36.5%
Bathgate	SNP	38.6%
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross	Liberal Democrats	38.3%
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley	SNP	34.7%
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane	SNP	38.1%
Clydebank and Milngavie	SNP	38.1%
Clydesdale	SNP	34.8%
Coatbridge and Chryston	SNP	46.4%
Cowdenbeath	SNP	38.9%
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth	SNP	47.3%
Cunninghame North	SNP	39.5%
Cunninghame South	SNP	40.7%
Dumbarton	Labour	40.0%
Dumfriesshire	SNP	30.4%
Dundee City East	SNP	47.7%
Dundee City West	SNP	49.7%
Dunfermline	SNP	39.5%
East Kilbride	SNP	41.8%
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs	SNP	38.6%
Eastwood	SNP	29.6%
Edinburgh Central	SNP	31.4%
Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent	SNP	38.6%
Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith	SNP	38.6%
Edinburgh Northern	SNP	38.6%
Edinburgh North Western	SNP	38.6%
Edinburgh Southern	Labour	39.6%
Edinburgh South Western	SNP	38.6%
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire	Conservative	28.1%
Falkirk East and Linlithgow	SNP	38.6%
Falkirk West	SNP	43.8%
Fife North East	SNP	38.6%
Galloway and West Dumfries	SNP	32.2%
Glasgow Anniesland	SNP	42.5%
Glasgow Baillieston and Shettleston	SNP	38.6%
Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok	SNP	38.6%
Glasgow Central	SNP	38.6%
Glasgow Easterhouse and Springburn	SNP	38.6%
Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill	SNP	38.6%
Glasgow Southside	SNP	48.5%
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse	SNP	37.2%
Inverclyde	SNP	38.6%
Inverness and Nairn	SNP	38.4%
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley	SNP	42.5%
Kirkcaldy	SNP	42.2%
Mid Fife and Glenrothes	SNP	44.7%
Midlothian North	SNP	38.6%
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale	SNP	37.1%
Moray	SNP	39.2%
Motherwell and Wishaw	SNP	42.9%
Na h-Eileanan an Iar	SNP	41.4%
Orkney Islands	Liberal Democrats	63.7%
Paisley	SNP	40.3%
Perthshire North	SNP	39.9%
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire	SNP	36.8%
Renfrewshire North and Cardonald	SNP	38.6%
Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley	SNP	38.6%
Rutherglen and Cambuslang	SNP	38.6%
Shetland Islands	Liberal Democrats	50.1%
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch	SNP	45.2%
Stirling	SNP	39.2%
Strathkelvin and Bearsden	SNP	36.7%
Uddingston and Bellshill	SNP	40.2%

Regions