After May 7
No overall control. Labour largest party
Council size: 60 seats · 20 up on May 7
Council · Metropolitan borough
Bolton
No overall control. Labour largest party after May 7 2026. (Remained no overall control, previously ncc)
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
9 of 60 seats
Won 9 on May 7 · had 0 before
Next election
May 2027
By thirds, three years in four.
Post-May 7 composition
Every party's seat count on the new council
Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Bolton
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astley Bridge | Conservative | Reform UK | 36.7% | high |
| Bradshaw | Conservative | Conservative | 38.4% | high |
| Breightmet | Conservative | Reform UK | 38.4% | high |
| Bromley Cross | Conservative | Conservative | 36.4% | high |
| Farnworth North | Labour | Labour | 29.5% | medium |
| Farnworth South | Farnworth and Kearsley First Party | Reform UK | 37.3% | medium |
| Great Lever | Labour | Labour | 39.3% | high |
| Halliwell | Green Party | Green Party | 33.6% | high |
| Heaton, Lostock & Chew Moor | Conservative | Conservative | 41.5% | medium |
| Horwich North | Independent | Horwich & Blackrod First Independents | 36.9% | medium |
| Horwich South & Blackrod | Independent | Horwich & Blackrod First Independents | 39.3% | medium |
| Hulton | Labour | Reform UK | 32.3% | high |
| Kearsley | Farnworth and Kearsley First Party | Reform UK | 37.5% | high |
| Little Lever & Darcy Lever | Conservative | Reform UK | 33.4% | medium |
| Queens Park & Central | Labour | Green Party | 49.4% | medium |
| Rumworth | Labour | Green Party | 43.6% | high |
| Smithills | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 36.4% | high |
| Tonge with the Haulgh | Labour | Reform UK | 41.2% | high |
| Westhoughton North & Hunger Hill | Conservative | Reform UK | 28.8% | medium |
| Westhoughton South | Lib Dem | Reform UK | 27.6% | high |