After May 7
Conservative majority
Council size: 58 seats · 58 up on May 7
Council · London borough
Conservative majority after May 7 2026. (Majority held)
What happened on May 7
After May 7
Conservative majority
Council size: 58 seats · 58 up on May 7
Reform UK
6 of 58 seats
Won 6 on May 7 · had 0 before
Next election
May 2030
Whole council every 4 years (London cycle).
Post-May 7 composition
Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.
How accurate was the model here?
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beckenham Town & Copers Cope | Conservative | Lib Dem | 26.2% | medium |
| Bickley & Sundridge | Conservative | Conservative | 35.7% | medium |
| Biggin Hill | Conservative | Reform UK | 33.0% | medium |
| Bromley Common & Holwood | Reform UK | Conservative | 37.8% | medium |
| Bromley Town | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 29.7% | medium |
| Chelsfield | Conservative | Conservative | 33.6% | medium |
| Chislehurst | Chislehurst Matters | Chislehurst Matters | 37.3% | medium |
| Clock House | Labour | Labour | 43.1% | medium |
| Crystal Palace & Anerley | Labour | Labour | 44.7% | medium |
| Darwin | Conservative | Conservative | 57.5% | medium |
| Farnborough & Crofton | Conservative | Conservative | 28.7% | medium |
| Hayes & Coney Hall | Conservative | Conservative | 38.0% | medium |
| Kelsey & Eden Park | Reform UK | Conservative | 29.2% | medium |
| Mottingham | Conservative | Conservative | 37.9% | medium |
| Orpington | Conservative | Conservative | 39.7% | medium |
| Penge & Cator | Labour | Labour | 41.6% | medium |
| Petts Wood & Knoll | Conservative | Conservative | 36.9% | medium |
| Plaistow | Labour | Conservative | 28.0% | medium |
| Shortlands & Park Langley | Conservative | Conservative | 36.0% | medium |
| St Mary Cray | Conservative | Conservative | 35.3% | medium |
| St Paul's Cray | Labour | Reform UK | 30.3% | medium |
| West Wickham | Conservative | Conservative | 34.3% | medium |