Calderdale. May 7 2026 result and what's next

What happened on May 7

Seats won and overall control

After May 7

Reform UK majority

Council size: 51 seats · 54 up on May 7

Reform UK

34 of 51 seats

Won 34 on May 7 · had 1 before · majority

Next election

May 2030

Whole council every 4 years.

Post-May 7 composition

Every party's seat count on the new council

Reform UK

34

Labour

8

Green Party

7

Independent / Other

3

Lib Dem

2

Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.

How accurate was the model here?

Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Calderdale

56% 10 / 18 winners called correctly across this council's wards

9.08pp major-party MAE, average gap between predicted and actual share

-6.77pp Reform UK signed bias, positive = predicted hot, negative = predicted cold

Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →

Our locked May 7 forecast

The pre-election prediction

Reform UK

18

Labour

17

Conservative

16

Workers Party

1

Green Party

1

Lib Dem

1

This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.

All wards

Per-ward forecast vs actual

Ward	Our top pick	Actual winner	Predicted share	Confidence
Brighouse	Conservative	Reform UK	33.9%	high
Elland	Reform UK	Reform UK	27.9%	high
Greetland	Reform UK	Reform UK	34.4%	low
Halifax Town	Reform UK	Reform UK	34.2%	low
Hebden Bridge & Todmorden East	Reform UK	Green Party	34.2%	low
Hipperholme & Lightcliffe	Reform UK	Reform UK	34.2%	low
Illingworth & Mixenden	Reform UK	Reform UK	34.2%	low
Luddendenfoot	Labour	Labour	39.2%	high
Northowram & Shelf	Reform UK	Green Party	34.4%	low
Ovenden	Labour	Reform UK	37.1%	high
Park	Workers Party	Independent	34.7%	high
Rastrick	Conservative	Reform UK	37.8%	high
Ryburn	Conservative	Reform UK	33.8%	high
Salterhebble, Southowram & Skircoat Green	Reform UK	Reform UK	34.4%	low
Sowerby Bridge	Labour	Reform UK	36.3%	high
Todmorden West	Reform UK	Green Party	34.4%	low
Wainhouse	Reform UK	Labour	34.4%	low
Warley	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	28.9%	high

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