Cheltenham. May 7 2026 result and what's next

What happened on May 7

Seats won and overall control

After May 7

Liberal Democrats majority

Council size: 40 seats · 20 up on May 7

Reform UK

1 of 40 seats

Won 1 on May 7 · had 0 before

Next election

TBC (Local Government Reorganisation)

Two-tier council under English Local Government Reorganisation. Next election date awaiting Statutory Instrument.

Post-May 7 composition

Every party's seat count on the new council

Lib Dem

35

Green Party

3

Reform UK

1

Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.

Local Government Reorganisation

Why we don't yet know when Cheltenham next votes

Cheltenham sits in a two-tier county area under review for Local Government Reorganisation following the English Devolution White Paper (December 2024). The county council and its districts are expected to be replaced by one or more new unitary authorities. Until the Statutory Instrument is laid, the next election date is not in our gift to guess.

We'll flip this page from TBC to a confirmed date the moment the SI publishes.

How accurate was the model here?

Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Cheltenham

80% 16 / 20 winners called correctly across this council's wards

6.93pp major-party MAE, average gap between predicted and actual share

+9.52pp Reform UK signed bias, positive = predicted hot, negative = predicted cold

Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →

Our locked May 7 forecast

The pre-election prediction

Lib Dem

12

Reform UK

6

Green Party

2

This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.

All wards

Per-ward forecast vs actual

Ward	Our top pick	Actual winner	Predicted share	Confidence
All Saints	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	35.5%	high
Battledown	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	34.6%	high
Benhall, the Reddings & Fiddler's Green	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	35.9%	medium
Charlton Kings	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	33.0%	high
Charlton Park	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	38.4%	high
College	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	32.4%	high
Hesters Way	Reform UK	Reform UK	29.5%	high
Lansdown	Reform UK	Lib Dem	36.4%	high
Leckhampton	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	35.1%	high
Oakley	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	39.4%	high
Park	Reform UK	Lib Dem	32.0%	high
Pittville	Reform UK	Lib Dem	32.2%	high
Prestbury	Green Party	Green Party	34.3%	high
Springbank	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	43.1%	high
St Mark's	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	35.5%	high
St Paul's	Green Party	Green Party	32.3%	high
St Peter's	Reform UK	Lib Dem	33.0%	high
Swindon Village	Reform UK	Lib Dem	33.3%	high
Up Hatherley	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	40.9%	high
Warden Hill	Lib Dem	Lib Dem	38.2%	high

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