After May 7
No overall control
Council · Council
East Surrey
No overall control after May 7 2026.
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
0 of n/a seats
Won 0 on May 7 · had 0 before
Next election
TBC
Council not yet classified.
Local Government Reorganisation
Why we don't yet know when East Surrey next votes
East Surrey sits in a two-tier county area under review for Local Government Reorganisation following the English Devolution White Paper (December 2024). The county council and its districts are expected to be replaced by one or more new unitary authorities. Until the Statutory Instrument is laid, the next election date is not in our gift to guess.
We'll flip this page from TBC to a confirmed date the moment the SI publishes.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for East Surrey
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashtead | Conservative | Ashtead Independents | 32.5% | low |
| Banstead, Woodmansterne & Chipstead | Conservative | Conservative | 33.3% | low |
| Bookham & Fetcham West | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.3% | low |
| Caterham Hill | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.3% | low |
| Caterham Valley | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.3% | low |
| Cobham & Oxshott South | Conservative | Conservative | 33.3% | low |
| Dorking | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.1% | low |
| Dorking Hills | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.3% | low |
| Dorking Rural | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.3% | low |
| Earlswood & Reigate South | Conservative | Green Party | 33.3% | low |
| Epsom Town & Downs | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.1% | low |
| Epsom West | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.1% | low |
| Esher, Claygate & Oxshott North | Conservative | Lib Dem | 32.3% | low |
| Ewell Court, Auriol & Cuddington | Conservative | Residents Associations of Epsom and Ewell | 33.1% | low |
| Ewell Village, Stoneleigh & Nonsuch | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.1% | low |
| Godstone | Conservative | Reform UK | 33.3% | low |
| Hersham | Conservative | Lib Dem | 32.5% | low |
| Horley East | Conservative | Reform UK | 36.7% | low |
| Horley West, Salfords & Sidlow | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.3% | low |
| Leatherhead & Fetcham East | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.3% | low |
| Lingfield | Conservative | Reform UK | 32.5% | low |
| Long Ditton, Hinchley Wood & Weston Green | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.1% | low |
| Merstham & Banstead South | Conservative | Green Party | 33.3% | low |
| Nork & Tattenhams | Conservative | Nork & Tattenhams Residents' Associations | 33.1% | low |
| Oxted | Conservative | Independent | 32.3% | low |
| Redhill East & North Earlswood | Conservative | Green Party | 33.3% | low |
| Redhill West & Meadvale | Conservative | Green Party | 33.3% | low |
| Reigate | Conservative | Lib Dem | 32.5% | low |
| Tadworth, Walton & Kingswood | Conservative | Conservative | 32.5% | low |
| Thames Ditton & East Molesey | Conservative | Lib Dem | 32.9% | low |
| Walton | Conservative | Lib Dem | 32.3% | low |
| Walton South & Oatlands | Conservative | Lib Dem | 33.1% | low |
| Warlingham | Conservative | Reform UK | 32.5% | low |
| West Ewell | Conservative | Lib Dem | 32.3% | low |
| West Molesey | Conservative | Conservative | 33.1% | low |
| Weybridge | Conservative | Lib Dem | 32.5% | low |