After May 7
No overall control
Council · Council
East Surrey
No overall control after May 7 2026.
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
0 of n/a seats
Won 0 on May 7 · had 0 before
Next election
TBC
Council not yet classified.
Local Government Reorganisation
Why we don't yet know when East Surrey next votes
East Surrey sits in a two-tier county area under review for Local Government Reorganisation following the English Devolution White Paper (December 2024). The county council and its districts are expected to be replaced by one or more new unitary authorities. Until the Statutory Instrument is laid, the next election date is not in our gift to guess.
We'll flip this page from TBC to a confirmed date the moment the SI publishes.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for East Surrey
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashtead | Reform UK | Ashtead Independents | 33.7% | low |
| Banstead, Woodmansterne & Chipstead | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.5% | low |
| Bookham & Fetcham West | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.5% | low |
| Caterham Hill | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.5% | low |
| Caterham Valley | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.5% | low |
| Cobham & Oxshott South | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.5% | low |
| Dorking | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.3% | low |
| Dorking Hills | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.5% | low |
| Dorking Rural | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.5% | low |
| Earlswood & Reigate South | Reform UK | Green Party | 34.5% | low |
| Epsom Town & Downs | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.3% | low |
| Epsom West | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.3% | low |
| Esher, Claygate & Oxshott North | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 33.6% | low |
| Ewell Court, Auriol & Cuddington | Reform UK | Residents Associations of Epsom and Ewell | 34.3% | low |
| Ewell Village, Stoneleigh & Nonsuch | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.3% | low |
| Godstone | Reform UK | Reform UK | 34.5% | low |
| Hersham | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 33.7% | low |
| Horley East | Reform UK | Reform UK | 36.6% | low |
| Horley West, Salfords & Sidlow | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.5% | low |
| Leatherhead & Fetcham East | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.5% | low |
| Lingfield | Reform UK | Reform UK | 33.7% | low |
| Long Ditton, Hinchley Wood & Weston Green | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.3% | low |
| Merstham & Banstead South | Reform UK | Green Party | 34.5% | low |
| Nork & Tattenhams | Reform UK | Nork & Tattenhams Residents' Associations | 34.3% | low |
| Oxted | Reform UK | Independent | 33.6% | low |
| Redhill East & North Earlswood | Reform UK | Green Party | 34.5% | low |
| Redhill West & Meadvale | Reform UK | Green Party | 34.5% | low |
| Reigate | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 33.7% | low |
| Tadworth, Walton & Kingswood | Reform UK | Conservative | 33.7% | low |
| Thames Ditton & East Molesey | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.1% | low |
| Walton | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 33.6% | low |
| Walton South & Oatlands | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 34.3% | low |
| Warlingham | Reform UK | Reform UK | 33.7% | low |
| West Ewell | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 33.6% | low |
| West Molesey | Reform UK | Conservative | 34.3% | low |
| Weybridge | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 33.7% | low |