Local council · East Sussex
Ashdown & Conquest
1 seat contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 5 candidates from 5 parties.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Ashdown & Conquest
✓ Winner called correctly
, predicted Reform UK,
actual Reform UK.
Major-party MAE: 2.00pp
across the parties below.
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 37.5% | 36.0% | +1.6pp |
| Labour | 11.0% | 12.9% | -1.9pp |
| Conservative | 19.2% | 21.0% | -1.8pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full East Sussex accuracy summary or the national audit.
Recent contests
What happened last time
| Date | Type | Winner | Top share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | By-election | Reform UK | 32.2% | declaration |
| 2021-05-06 | Cycle | Conservative and Unionist Party | 59.8% | declaration |
| 2017-05-04 | Cycle | Conservative and Unionist Party | 62.0% | declaration |
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Green Party
- Labour and Co-operative Party
- Lib Dem
- Reform UK
How this prediction was made
- Baseline . Most recent borough result (2025-11-20)
- National Swing (STM) . Strong Transition Model: multiplicative bounded swing, dampened by 0.1 for local
- Demographics . No significant demographic adjustments for this ward
- Incumbency . No current holder data available
- New Party Entry . Reform UK has existing baseline, no proxy needed
- Normalise . All shares scaled to sum to 100%
- Restrict to ballot . Removed 4 party/parties not standing in 2026 (Independent 2.2pp, SNP 0.0pp, Other 0.0pp, Plaid Cymru 0.0pp). Their share redistributed pro-rata.
- 2025 county-cycle anchor . No 2025 reference available for this council's parent area. Stage 1 uses national polling only.
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers — Labour ×0.82, Conservative ×1.00, Reform UK ×1.15, Liberal Democrats ×0.96, Green Party ×1.12, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.