Local council · Guildford
Onslow
1 seat contested on Thursday 7 May 2026. 5 candidates from 5 parties.
Predicted vote share
What the model expects
Predictions are point estimates: the model's best guess, not a guarantee. The "How this prediction was made" section below lists every step that shaped this forecast.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Onslow
✓ Winner called correctly
, predicted Lib Dem,
actual Lib Dem.
Major-party MAE: 14.27pp
across the parties below.
| Party | Predicted | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 30.6% | 10.4% | +20.1pp |
| Labour | 15.2% | 3.7% | +11.5pp |
| Conservative | 16.2% | 12.1% | +4.1pp |
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full Guildford accuracy summary or the national audit.
Recent contests
What happened last time
| Date | Type | Winner | Top share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-04 | Cycle | Lib Dem | 20.1% | declaration |
| 2019-05-02 | Cycle | Lib Dem | 18.0% | declaration |
Candidates 2026
Parties on the ballot
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- Green Party
- Labour Party
- Lib Dem
- Reform UK
How this area looks demographically
Figures are for Guildford as a whole. The same local-authority figures are used for every ward in the council, finer ward-level demographics will land in a future release.
- White British (projected May 2026): 74.3% (Census 2021: 77.3%)
- Asian heritage (projected May 2026): 7.5% (Census 2021: 6.7%)
- Average area deprivation decile: 8.2 (1 = most deprived, 10 = least)
How this prediction was made
- Baseline . Most recent borough result (2023-05-04)
- BES MRP Prior . Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_east prior (weight 15%, n=5565 regional respondents)
- National Swing (STM) . Strong Transition Model: multiplicative bounded swing, dampened by 0.1 for local
- Demographics . 1 demographic factor(s) applied
- Incumbency . No current holder data available
- New Party Entry . Reform UK estimated at 3.1% from GE/LCC proxy + swing
- Normalise . All shares scaled to sum to 100%
- Restrict to ballot . Removed 6 party/parties not standing in 2026 (Residents for Guildford and Villages 11.0pp, Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 1.0pp, Restore Britain 0.2pp, SNP 0.0pp, Plaid Cymru 0.0pp, Other 0.0pp). Their share redistributed pro-rata.
- 2025 county-cycle anchor . No 2025 reference available for this council's parent area. Stage 1 uses national polling only.
- Reform realignment uplift (no-anchor councils) . No 2025 parent-county anchor available; demographic-borrow rule applied. Asian 7.5% → base target 34.5% × regional multiplier 0.85 = 29.3%. Reform 8.3% → 29.3% (lift +21.0pp). Other parties scaled pro-rata. Calibration source: Burnley 2026 ward-level Asian%↔Reform% relationship (the 2-tier district that did receive the LCC 2025 anchor).
- National-share calibration . Aggregate-predicted vs national-polled mismatch corrected at strength 0.65. Multipliers: Labour ×0.85, Conservative ×1.02, Reform UK ×1.12, Liberal Democrats ×0.88, Green Party ×1.02, SNP ×1.00, Plaid Cymru ×1.00.