After May 7
Reform UK majority
Council size: 55 seats · 55 up on May 7
Council · London borough
Havering
Reform UK majority after May 7 2026. (Majority gained, previously Independent / Other)
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
35 of 55 seats
Won 35 on May 7 · had 0 before · majority
Next election
May 2030
Whole council every 4 years (London cycle).
Post-May 7 composition
Every party's seat count on the new council
Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Havering
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beam Park | Labour | Labour | 55.2% | medium |
| Cranham | Upminster and Cranham Residents Association | Local | 42.0% | medium |
| Elm Park | Hornchurch Residents Association | Local | 40.8% | medium |
| Emerson Park | Havering Residents Association | Reform UK | 32.9% | medium |
| Gooshays | Labour | Reform UK | 23.9% | medium |
| Hacton | Hornchurch Residents Association | Local | 50.8% | medium |
| Harold Wood | Harold Wood Hill Park Residents Association | Local | 37.5% | medium |
| Havering-atte-Bower | Conservative | Conservative | 29.3% | medium |
| Heaton | Labour | Reform UK | 37.9% | medium |
| Hylands & Harrow Lodge | Hornchurch Residents Association | Reform UK | 22.4% | medium |
| Marshalls & Rise Park | Conservative | Reform UK | 30.4% | medium |
| Mawneys | Conservative | Reform UK | 35.0% | medium |
| Rainham & Wennington | Conservative | Reform UK | 30.5% | medium |
| Rush Green & Crowlands | Conservative | Reform UK | 35.1% | medium |
| South Hornchurch | Independent | Reform UK | 29.5% | medium |
| Squirrels Heath | Conservative | Reform UK | 35.8% | medium |
| St Alban's | Conservative | Reform UK | 36.1% | medium |
| St Andrew's | Hornchurch Residents Association | Reform UK | 34.5% | medium |
| St Edward's | Conservative | Reform UK | 26.2% | medium |
| Upminster | Upminster and Cranham Residents Association | Local | 57.8% | medium |