Council · Unitary authority

Kingston upon Hull

No overall control. Liberal Democrats largest party after May 7 2026. (Majority lost, previously Liberal Democrats)

What happened on May 7

Seats won and overall control

After May 7

No overall control. Liberal Democrats largest party

Council size: 57 seats · 19 up on May 7

Reform UK

10 of 57 seats

Won 10 on May 7 · had 0 before

Next election

May 2030

Whole council every 4 years.

Post-May 7 composition

Lib Dem

Labour

Reform UK

Independent / Other

Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.

How accurate was the model here?

53% 10 / 19 winners called correctly across this council's wards

6.80pp major-party MAE, average gap between predicted and actual share

+6.16pp Reform UK signed bias, positive = predicted hot, negative = predicted cold

Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →

Our locked May 7 forecast

Reform UK

This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.

All wards

Ward	Our top pick	Actual winner	Predicted share	Confidence
Avenue	Reform UK	Lib Dem	41.2%	high
Beverley & Newland	Reform UK	Lib Dem	41.3%	high
Boothferry	Reform UK	Lib Dem	41.1%	high
Bricknell	Reform UK	Labour	41.5%	high
Central	Reform UK	Lib Dem	42.4%	high
Derringham	Reform UK	Reform UK	41.5%	high
Drypool	Reform UK	Lib Dem	40.8%	high
Holderness	Reform UK	Lib Dem	41.2%	high
Longhill & Bilton Grange	Reform UK	Reform UK	41.6%	high
Marfleet	Reform UK	Reform UK	42.6%	high
Newington & Gipsyville	Reform UK	Reform UK	42.4%	high
North Carr	Reform UK	Reform UK	42.2%	high
Orchard Park	Reform UK	Reform UK	42.1%	high
Pickering	Reform UK	Lib Dem	41.5%	high
Southcoates	Reform UK	Reform UK	43.0%	high
St Andrew's & Docklands	Reform UK	Reform UK	42.8%	high
Sutton	Reform UK	Reform UK	41.2%	high
University	Reform UK	Lib Dem	41.4%	high
West Carr	Reform UK	Reform UK	41.4%	high