After May 7
Labour majority
Council size: 57 seats · 57 up on May 7
Council · London borough
Merton
Labour majority after May 7 2026. (Majority held)
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
0 of 57 seats
Won 0 on May 7 · had 0 before
Next election
May 2030
Whole council every 4 years (London cycle).
Post-May 7 composition
Every party's seat count on the new council
Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Merton
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 24.5% | medium |
| Cannon Hill | Conservative | Lib Dem | 24.8% | medium |
| Colliers Wood | Labour | Labour | 34.2% | medium |
| Cricket Green | Labour | Labour | 42.8% | medium |
| Figge's Marsh | Labour | Labour | 45.0% | medium |
| Graveney | Labour | Labour | 40.7% | medium |
| Hillside | Conservative | Lib Dem | 35.9% | medium |
| Lavender Fields | Labour | Labour | 42.0% | medium |
| Longthornton | Labour | Labour | 39.3% | medium |
| Lower Morden | Labour | Labour | 29.5% | medium |
| Merton Park | Independent | Merton Park Ward Independent Residents | 43.1% | medium |
| Pollards Hill | Labour | Labour | 45.7% | medium |
| Ravensbury | Labour | Labour | 43.2% | medium |
| Raynes Park | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 30.8% | medium |
| St Helier | Labour | Labour | 34.6% | medium |
| Village | Conservative | Conservative | 29.3% | medium |
| Wandle | Labour | Labour | 29.8% | medium |
| West Barnes | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 31.0% | medium |
| Wimbledon Park | Reform UK | Lib Dem | 23.0% | medium |
| Wimbledon Town & Dundonald | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | 35.8% | medium |