After May 7
Reform UK majority
Council size: 44 seats · 44 up on May 7
Council · District council
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Reform UK majority after May 7 2026. (Majority gained, previously Conservative)
What happened on May 7
Seats won and overall control
Reform UK
27 of 44 seats
Won 27 on May 7 · had 1 before · majority
Next election
TBC (Local Government Reorganisation)
Two-tier council under English Local Government Reorganisation. Next election date awaiting Statutory Instrument.
Post-May 7 composition
Every party's seat count on the new council
Pre-May-7 composition is the latest OCD snapshot of who held each seat; post is pre minus seats up plus actual winners.
Local Government Reorganisation
Why we don't yet know when Newcastle-under-Lyme next votes
Newcastle-under-Lyme sits in a two-tier county area under review for Local Government Reorganisation following the English Devolution White Paper (December 2024). The county council and its districts are expected to be replaced by one or more new unitary authorities. Until the Statutory Instrument is laid, the next election date is not in our gift to guess.
We'll flip this page from TBC to a confirmed date the moment the SI publishes.
How accurate was the model here?
Our 7 May 2026 forecast for Newcastle-under-Lyme
Locked, sha256-witnessed forecast scored against the actual count. See the full national accuracy audit →
Our locked May 7 forecast
The pre-election prediction
This is the seats-on-the-ballot projection we published before polls opened, used here for accuracy comparison only.
All wards
Per-ward forecast vs actual
| Ward | Our top pick | Actual winner | Predicted share | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audley | Reform UK | Reform UK | 37.0% | medium |
| Bradwell | Reform UK | Reform UK | 65.7% | high |
| Clayton | Conservative | Reform UK | 38.2% | high |
| Crackley & Red Street | Reform UK | Reform UK | 63.7% | medium |
| Cross Heath | Reform UK | Reform UK | 55.3% | high |
| Holditch & Chesterton | Reform UK | Reform UK | 62.2% | medium |
| Keele | Labour | Labour | 43.0% | medium |
| Kidsgrove & Ravenscliffe | Reform UK | Reform UK | 64.9% | medium |
| Knutton | Reform UK | Reform UK | 63.4% | medium |
| Loggerheads | Conservative | Conservative | 41.1% | medium |
| Madeley & Betley | Reform UK | Conservative | 62.3% | medium |
| Maer & Whitmore | Conservative | Conservative | 41.2% | medium |
| May Bank | Reform UK | Conservative | 70.8% | high |
| Newchapel & Mow Cop | Reform UK | Reform UK | 62.4% | medium |
| Silverdale | Reform UK | Reform UK | 62.4% | medium |
| Talke & Butt Lane | Reform UK | Reform UK | 71.6% | medium |
| Thistleberry | Reform UK | Conservative | 51.8% | high |
| Town | Labour | Reform UK | 34.4% | high |
| Westbury Park & Northwood | Reform UK | Conservative | 56.7% | medium |
| Westlands | Reform UK | Conservative | 67.3% | high |
| Wolstanton | Reform UK | Reform UK | 57.5% | high |