General election forecast
Alyn and Deeside
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 30.7% of the vote, a 0.5pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Mark Tami
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Tami | Labour Party | 18,395 | 42.4% |
| Vicki Roskams | Reform UK | 9,601 | 22.1% |
| Jeremy Richard Kent | Conservative and Unionist Party | 7,892 | 18.2% |
| Richard David Marbrow | Lib Dem | 2,065 | 4.8% |
| Jack Morris | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | 1,938 | 4.5% |
| Karl Raymond Macnaughton | Green Party | 1,926 | 4.4% |
| Edwin Duggan | Independent | 1,575 | 3.6% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Alyn and Deeside, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Alyn and Deeside
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 wales prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 27.8% → Reform +1.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%