General election forecast
Banbury
Predicted winner: Labour with 26.8% of the vote, a 0.7pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Sean Woodcock
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Woodcock | Labour Party | 18,468 | 38.3% |
| Victoria Prentis | Conservative and Unionist Party | 15,212 | 31.6% |
| Paul Nicholas Topley | Reform UK | 6,284 | 13.0% |
| Elizabeth Adams | Lib Dem | 4,352 | 9.0% |
| Arron John Baker | Green Party | 2,615 | 5.4% |
| Cassi Bellingham | Independent | 850 | 1.8% |
| Chris Nevile | Climate Party | 242 | 0.5% |
| Declan Soper | Social Democratic Party | 155 | 0.3% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Banbury, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Banbury
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_east prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 31.0% → Reform +2.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%