General election forecast

Beverley and Holderness

Predicted winner: Reform UK with 28.7% of the vote, a 0.2pp margin over Conservative.

england · yorkshire

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

Reform UK

28.7% +10.4pp

Conservative

28.4% +28.4pp

Labour

23.9% +23.9pp

Green Party

7.3% +3.6pp

Lib Dem

6.7% -0.8pp

Restore

2.9% +2.9pp

Yorkshire Party

1.3% -0.1pp

SNP

0.3% +0.3pp

Plaid Cymru

0.2% +0.2pp

Social Democratic Party

0.2% +0.0pp

Alliance

0.2% +0.2pp

Other

0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Graham Stuart

Party: Conservative and Unionist Party
Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
Status: standing again

What happened on 4 July 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Graham Stuart	Conservative and Unionist Party	15,501	34.5%
Margaret Elaine Pinder	Labour Party	15,377	34.2%
Andy Smith	Reform UK	8,198	18.3%
Denis Healy	Lib Dem	3,386	7.5%
Jonathan Stephenson	Green Party	1,647	3.7%
George Mcmanus	Yorkshire Party	625	1.4%
Chris Collin	Social Democratic Party	89	0.2%
John Ottaway	Alliance for Democracy and Freedom	74	0.2%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Beverley and Holderness, and what actually happened.

✓ Winner called correctly , predicted Conservative, actual Conservative. Major-party MAE: 3.78pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Conservative

37.8%

Labour

22.8%

Reform UK

19.0%

Lib Dem

8.0%

Green Party

6.7%

Yorkshire Party

1.9%

Independent

1.6%

Workers Party

0.8%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Conservative

34.5% +3.2pp

Labour

34.3% -11.5pp

Reform UK

18.3% +0.7pp

Lib Dem

7.5% +0.5pp

Green Party

3.7% +3.0pp

Yorkshire Party

1.4% +0.6pp

Independent

0.0% +1.6pp

Workers Party

0.0% +0.8pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built

GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Beverley and Holderness
National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 yorkshire prior at weight 5%
English-identity floor. English 38.2% → Reform +2.0pp
Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 27.1% → Reform +0.40pp, Con +0.20pp (BES-dampened)
Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →