General election forecast

Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley

Predicted winner: Labour with 27.9% of the vote, a 8.5pp margin over Green Party.

england · west midlands

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

Labour

27.9% +27.9pp

Green Party

19.4% +10.0pp

Lib Dem

16.5% +5.2pp

Reform UK

16.5% +11.0pp

Conservative

10.7% +10.7pp

Independent

8.0% -9.2pp

SNP

0.7% +0.7pp

Plaid Cymru

0.3% +0.3pp

Other

0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Tahir Ali

Party: Labour Party
Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
Status: standing again

What happened on 4 July 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Tahir Ali	Labour Party	12,798	30.8%
Shakeel Afsar	Independent	7,142	17.2%
Mohammad Hafeez	Independent	6,159	14.8%
Izzy Knowles	Lib Dem	4,711	11.3%
Zain Ahmed	Green Party	3,913	9.4%
Henry Stephen Whitlock Morris	Conservative and Unionist Party	3,845	9.2%
Stephen Gerard McBrine	Reform UK	2,305	5.5%
Babar Saleem Raja	Independent	733	1.8%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley, and what actually happened.

✗ Winner missed , predicted Labour, actual Independent. Major-party MAE: 13.29pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Independent

0.0%

Labour

76.1%

Lib Dem

7.4%

Green Party

3.8%

Conservative

0.0%

Reform UK

3.2%

Other

9.0%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Independent

33.7% -33.7pp

Labour

30.8% +45.3pp

Lib Dem

11.3% -3.9pp

Green Party

9.4% -5.6pp

Conservative

9.2% -9.2pp

Reform UK

5.5% -2.4pp

Other

0.0% +9.0pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built

GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley
National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 west_midlands prior at weight 5%
Reform demographic ceiling. Muslim 56.8% → cap Reform at 12%; redistributed 2.8pp
Independent ceiling. Cap Independent at 8% (flat); redistributed 25.1pp
Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →