General election forecast
Bracknell
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 26.5% of the vote, a 0.1pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Peter Swallow
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Swallow | Labour Party | 14,783 | 33.7% |
| James Sunderland | Conservative and Unionist Party | 13,999 | 31.9% |
| Malcolm Tullett | Reform UK | 7,445 | 17.0% |
| Katie Mansfield | Lib Dem | 4,768 | 10.9% |
| Emily Torode | Green Party | 2,166 | 4.9% |
| Olivio Barreto | Independent | 480 | 1.1% |
| Jason Peter Reardon | Heritage Party | 196 | 0.4% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Bracknell, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Bracknell
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_east prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 32.0% → Reform +2.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%