General election forecast
Bristol Central
Predicted winner: Green Party with 60.0% of the vote, a 39.2pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Carla Denyer
- Party: Green Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Denyer | Green Party | 24,539 | 56.6% |
| Thangam Debbonaire | Labour Party | 14,132 | 32.6% |
| Samuel Williams | Conservative and Unionist Party | 1,998 | 4.6% |
| Robert Clarke | Reform UK | 1,338 | 3.1% |
| Nicholas Coombes | Lib Dem | 1,162 | 2.7% |
| Kellie-Jay Keen | Party Of Women | 196 | 0.5% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Bristol Central, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Bristol Central
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_west prior at weight 5%
- Incumbency / Retirement. Green Party: standing again, 1.9yr tenure → 1.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%