General election forecast
Broadland and Fakenham
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 27.6% of the vote, a 0.4pp margin over Conservative.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Jerome Mayhew
- Party: Conservative and Unionist Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Mayhew | Conservative and Unionist Party | 16,322 | 33.0% |
| Iain Simpson | Labour Party | 15,603 | 31.5% |
| Eric Philip Ashwell Masters | Reform UK | 8,859 | 17.9% |
| Leyla Hannbeck | Lib Dem | 5,526 | 11.2% |
| Jan Davis | Green Party | 3,203 | 6.5% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Broadland and Fakenham, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Broadland and Fakenham
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 east_of_england prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 39.1% → Reform +2.0pp
- Age-structure adjustment. 65+ 26.6% → Reform +0.40pp, Con +0.20pp (BES-dampened)
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%