General election forecast
Chelsea and Fulham
Predicted winner: Conservative with 30.0% of the vote, a 4.7pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Ben Coleman
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 1.9 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Coleman | Labour Party | 18,556 | 39.4% |
| Greg Hands | Conservative and Unionist Party | 18,404 | 39.1% |
| Blaise Baquiche | Lib Dem | 3,611 | 7.7% |
| Anthony Goodwin | Reform UK | 3,144 | 6.7% |
| Mona Crocker | Green Party | 2,798 | 5.9% |
| Sabi Patwary | Workers Party | 538 | 1.1% |
| David Peter Poulden | Heritage Party | 65 | 0.1% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Chelsea and Fulham, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Chelsea and Fulham
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 london prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%