General election forecast
Chipping Barnet
Predicted winner: Conservative with 31.2% of the vote, a 0.4pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Dan Tomlinson
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Tomlinson | Labour Party | 21,585 | 42.4% |
| Theresa Villiers | Conservative and Unionist Party | 18,671 | 36.7% |
| Hamish Haddow | Reform UK | 3,986 | 7.8% |
| David Samuel Farbey | Green Party | 3,442 | 6.8% |
| Mark James Durrant | Lib Dem | 2,614 | 5.1% |
| Richard Hewison | Rejoin EU | 379 | 0.7% |
| Kay Lauer | Independent | 182 | 0.4% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Chipping Barnet, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Chipping Barnet
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 london prior at weight 5%
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%