General election forecast
Crawley
Predicted winner: Reform UK with 27.3% of the vote, a 0.5pp margin over Labour.
Predicted vote share
How the model expects this constituency to vote
Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.
Sitting MP
Peter Lamb
- Party: Labour Party
- Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
- Status: standing again
See also: TheyWorkForYou
2024 general election result
What happened on 4 July 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lamb | Labour Party | 17,453 | 38.2% |
| Zack Ali | Conservative and Unionist Party | 12,218 | 26.8% |
| Tim Charters | Reform UK | 8,447 | 18.5% |
| Iain Bradley Martin Dickson | Green Party | 2,621 | 5.7% |
| Linda Bamieh | Workers Party | 2,407 | 5.3% |
| Lee Daniel Gibbs | Lib Dem | 2,205 | 4.8% |
| Robin Burnham | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | 153 | 0.3% |
| Dan Weir | Heritage Party | 138 | 0.3% |
Source: Returning officer declaration
How accurate is the model here?
Our 2024 backtest for this constituency
We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Crawley, and what actually happened.
Predicted
Actual on 4 July 2024
Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.
How this forecast was built
- GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Crawley
- National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
- BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 south_east prior at weight 5%
- English-identity floor. English 26.1% → Reform +1.0pp
- Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%