General election forecast

Crewe and Nantwich

Predicted winner: Labour with 31.1% of the vote, a 0.6pp margin over Reform UK.

england · north west

Predicted vote share

How the model expects this constituency to vote

Labour

31.1% +31.1pp

Reform UK

30.5% +10.2pp

Conservative

19.1% +19.1pp

Green Party

8.8% +4.2pp

Lib Dem

4.5% -0.3pp

Restore

3.1% +3.1pp

Independent

1.2% +1.2pp

Workers Party

0.7% -0.1pp

The Official Monster Raving Loony Party

0.5% -0.0pp

SNP

0.3% +0.3pp

Plaid Cymru

0.2% +0.2pp

Other

0.0% 0.0pp

Coloured number is the swing from the 2024 general election result.

Sitting MP

Connor Naismith

Party: Labour Party
Tenure: 2.1 years (since 2024-07-04)
Status: standing again

What happened on 4 July 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Connor Naismith	Labour Party	20,837	44.1%
Ben Fletcher	Conservative and Unionist Party	11,110	23.5%
Matt Wood	Reform UK	9,602	20.3%
Matthew Theobald	Lib Dem	2,286	4.8%
Te Ata Browne	Green Party	2,151	4.6%
Brian George Silvester	Putting Crewe First, Independent Residents Group.	588	1.2%
Phil Lane	Workers Party	373	0.8%
Lord Psychobilly Tractor	The Official Monster Raving Loony Party	250	0.5%

Source: Returning officer declaration

How accurate is the model here?

Our 2024 backtest for this constituency

We replayed the same model architecture against the 4 July 2024 general election using only the data a forecaster running the model in May 2024 would have known. Here's what it would have predicted for Crewe and Nantwich, and what actually happened.

✓ Winner called correctly , predicted Labour, actual Labour. Major-party MAE: 3.60pp, the average gap between our predicted vote share and the actual share, per major party.

Predicted

Labour

37.4%

Conservative

31.0%

Reform UK

18.5%

Lib Dem

4.2%

Green Party

5.9%

Independent

1.2%

Workers Party

0.8%

The Official Monster Raving Loony Party

0.0%

Actual on 4 July 2024

Labour

44.1% -6.8pp

Conservative

23.5% +7.5pp

Reform UK

20.3% -1.8pp

Lib Dem

4.8% -0.7pp

Green Party

4.6% +1.3pp

Independent

1.3% -0.0pp

Workers Party

0.8% -0.0pp

The Official Monster Raving Loony Party

0.5% -0.5pp

Positive gap = we predicted that party would win more share than they did. See the full GE backtest across all 650 seats for the model's national accuracy.

How this forecast was built

GE2024 Baseline. Actual GE2024 result in Crewe and Nantwich
National Swing (Strong Transition Model). Multiplicative bounded swing, losers shed in proportion to local share, gainers absorb pro-rata national gain. Replaces additive UNS.
BES MRP Prior. Baseline blended with BES Wave 1-30 north_west prior at weight 5%
English-identity floor. English 33.2% → Reform +2.0pp
Normalise. Shares scaled to 100%

Read the full general election methodology →